Anomalous low in SE,
still a beautiful week ahead here |
| Posted: 11/20/2006 04:08:00 PM |
 Last night, light snow showers brought a dusting of snow to the area. It has since then melted/blown away however was a nice sight. So far this season, snow has occurred on three occasions, yet none of them recorded measurable amounts.
The Thanksgiving work week is starting out chilly but with sunny skies. There is a chance of a few flurries from lake effect snows, but nothing worth mentioning in the forecast. Temperatures in Keene have not even broken 40 yet today and I believe 39 is going to be the recorded high. Sure that is a bit chilly, but we are getting to that time of the year and in fact, the average high is 45 in Keene for Nov 20. Tonight will continue the trend of clear and cold. Lows are expected to dip down to near 20, and some of the low-lying valleys in Cheshire County may indeed see teens for the first time this season. Once again, this is actually only 6 degrees under the average of 26 in Keene. Tomorrow will see skies even clearer than today. Highs will probably break 40 under the influence of the increased solar energy. Tomorrow night, clear skies will allow for the opposite, with radiational cooling bringing temperatures into the teens (for sure even in downtown Keene).
Temperatures will begin to escalate on Wednesday and on Thanksgiving, with highs nearing 50 (5 degrees above average) both days. This should prove to make a beautiful Thanksgiving with skies remaining mostly sunny. Overnight lows will continue to fall into the 20s (average) through the rest of the week.
Temperatures will moderate back to around average for Friday and the weekend as a storm system in the SE slowly lifts northward. This will bring an on-shore flow warming the coast and the I-95 corridor into the 50s. Further inland from VT into SW NH, western MA, and NY cooler air will flow around back of the low.
This storm system could affect our weather in more significant ways than a 5 degree temperature drop.
Currently the 1014mb low is located directly off the Georgia coast. This low has redeveloped north of its original location and has started to strengthen. As the models have been predicting, the low will begin to close off from the jet stream. A cold air mass is already developing underneath the low. Heavy rains are moving into the Carolinas and there is intense thunderstorm activity off the coast. some of the precipitation could mix with or change to snow for a time expecially in the higher elevations, and in fact, a mix of rain and snow is already showing up on radar in northern Alabama and Tennessee. snow advisories have been issued for western NC where the higher elevation could see anywhere from 1 to 5 inches (dependent on altitude). Closer to the coast, no snow is expected, however because of the nature of this low, rain will splatter against window panes for another 2 to 3 days in the Carolinas. The HPC's latest outlook calls for upwards of 8 inches through by the end of the week.
This storm system will gain some considerable strength while situated in the SE and could even gain some sub-tropical characteristics. As it drifts northward later this week, some weakening may occur as it reaches cooler waters. Even so, this storm will likely retain significant size and strength at least through 40N.
The low continues to be a tough one to forecast. Since it is a cut-off low, there is really nothing driving it this way or that and this is allowing for considerable spread in model forecasts. If you recall, this storm is the same one that was the topic of conversation last week as we wondered how far west it could stay, in anticipation of northward movement by Tuesday. Now, the ultimate effects of the low are not expected to reach SNE for another 3 to 4 days, and we still do not know where it's headed.
The NWS is staying conservative and keeping most parts of the BOX NWS area dry expect for the cape and the islands. Based on the redevelopment that occurred earlier and the continued stubborness of the GFS to move it west, I have included a chance of showers on Saturday. Depending on the final track as well as how strong the on-shore flow will be, we may see some freezing rain or sleet mixing in Saturday morning.
Behind the storm (whether the storm gets here or when) skies should clear out. The current projection for this to happen is Sunday, but this storm could change things around quite a bit before then.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 11/20/2006 04:08:00 PM 
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