Beautiful weekend, rainy Monday |
| Posted: 12/16/2006 07:40:00 PM |
Sunny skies returned today, following two straight days of thick morning fog. This assisted temperatures up to near 50 across the area. Tonight, clear skies and light winds will allow radiational cooling, bringing Keene, coolest in the valley, down into the upper 20s to near 30. Tomorrow, high pressure will move east of the region, renewing a southerly flow and lifting temperatures into the low 50s and keeping them above freezing Sunday Night.
Not too much has changed in regards to the storm Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure will move north of the region Monday afternoon, dragging a cold front across the area Monday Night. Rain will move in out ahead of the storm making for a soggy evening commute Monday. Behind the front, temperatures will drop steadily, reaching the 20s by day-break Tuesday. Rain could change to snow before ending Tuesday morning and a chance of scattered snow showers will continue into the afternoon. No snow accumulation is expected at this time below 1000ft. Above 1000ft, some light snow accumulations cannot be ruled out. Around southern New England, the best chance for measurable snowfall will actually be to the east of the area. The storm will wind up off the coast on Tuesday, producing some back-lash and possibly ocean-effect precipitation for a time.
Behind the storm, colder air will be here to stay for at least two days. That much is certain. Our prospects of keeping to cold here for longer have diminished since yesterday. Medium and long range models are now showing the Monday storm progressing further east than originally expected. It will still set up a strong block, however closer to Europe. This means that the trough over the east Wednesday will be able to move faster out of the region. High pressure then will set up in the Mid Atlantic, creating a ridge in the east for Thursday.
This is what is being shown by the GFS and the Euro at this time.
Further more, with a strong ridge in place, the storm previously hailed by all as a glimmer of hope for snow, now will be forced northward in the midwest. For people in the midwest and Ohio Valley, this is good news for snow, however in the Northeast, this storm will be another chapter of rain in the never-ending saga of above average temperatures.
Keep in mind:
The forecast period I speak of is day 5-7 which translates to "not even close to set in stone." The monumental change in the forecast for this period has happened all within the last 24 hours. If you recall, yesterday, this looked to be a solid change over to winter. When changes happen that suddenly, more often than not, the forecast moderates a bit.
Behind the Friday storm (which ever way it arrives in the region) temperatures will fall back about 5 degrees. Per the 12/16 12z GFS, this would bring us back to near average. Per the 12/15 12z GFS, this would drop us down around 10 degrees below average. This tune down in temperature will occur just in time for Christmas. So even if we dont have a white one, it still will come with a bite to the air. The Christmas period is out 9 days, but I still say with confidence, we should be below 40.
While I have yet to uncover statistics on the average occurance of a white Christmas in Keene, NH, here are the percentages for other areas of SNE along with some other historic information:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/christmasDayWx.html
Here is my current outlook for a white Christmas in 2006:
I have placed Keene in the 30 - 50% area. For Keene, my first forecast is a 32% chance of a white Christmas below 1000ft and a 37% chance of a white Christmas above 1000ft.
Last on the current list of potential events, is a storm currently progged for the last week of December. It is still uncertain as to the exact timing of the storm. This morning, the GFS forecast was for the arrival of heavy snow just before the dawn of 2007. Yesterday, we were looking at the 25-27 time period. Either way, it appears the region will have average to below average temperatures through the last week of December, offering a chance for some snow before January rolls around.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/16/2006 07:40:00 PM 
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