Colder, but still above average |
| Posted: 12/19/2006 06:53:00 AM |
 UPDATE (1800): A chance of flurries tonight, otherwise clearing skies and light winds will help temperatures drop to the upper teens to around 20. Tomorrow, sunny skies will warm up the area to the upper 30s to near 40. Thursday, again, warming up to the low 40s. Friday, gearing up for a potentially significant icing event if enough cold air exists. Precipitation is now being held off until Friday Night. It will likely start as freezing rain or sleet, and the possibility is there even for some wet snow to mix in (no accumulation). All wintry precipitation will change to plain rain by late Saturday morning as warmer air mixes down to the surface. Highs will reach the upper 30s. Precipitation will come to an end Saturday Night, possibly as another period of freezing rain or snow. This could put a glaze to even a tenth of an inch of ice on the ground Friday Night and Saturday Night, so commuters should definitely pay attention to this evolving senario.
Sunday, clearing skies will help boost temperatures past 40 again. Christmas Day looks green right now. The GFS has backed up the storm considerably since yesterday and now doesnt bring precipitation into the region until Tuesday Night or Wednesday. Also we have to be watching for the possibility of the storm going too far south of the region for Keene to get anything. The GFS ensembles are starting to disagree on this solution (and Im way to familiar with this to be excited over the one showing the storm the best for us). This is one of those situation where it is going to be back and forth for a while most likely.
One thing that is looking a little more promising is the prospect of having cold air at least in Keene for the event (if it happens). Ensemble forecast for the NAO is looking the best it has for the past few days. The one that needs to be watched is the AO which is remaining positive throughout the period and could restrict cold air entering the region from Canada.
We will have to watch Christmas week closely. In addition to the Christmas / post Christmas storm, there is storm around New Years that has been getting some model consensus. Of course one storm at a time!
Climate statistic: average high for tomorrow is 32F. Today the average was 33, and the high reached 39 this afternoon. It appears possible that we could go as long as 15 days with above average day-time high temperatures! Also, with the continued absense of measurable snowfall this season, I'll start to gather some information on past snowfall data. We could be nearing records for longest without measurable snowfall and least snowfall during the calender year.
Tropical note: reanalysis from the NHC is almost done (Florence is left). The NHC issued on the 15th analysis for an unnamed tropical storm in July. This brings 2006 to 10 named storms and the 1851-2000 seasonal average.
Model forecasts have gotten a bit softer on the brief cold spell that will be in the region through tomorrow. Highs are still expected to be stuck down in the 30s but a few degrees warmer than previously thought. With an average of 33 degrees in Keene this time of the year, we will likely continue what is currently a 9-day streak of above-normal high temperatures.
There is a chance of flurries today, but otherwise it will be partly cloudy through Thursday. Highs on Thursday will reach back to around 40 as a high builds a ridge back up.
Information on the two storm threats coming up this evening.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/19/2006 06:53:00 AM 
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