Cooling down to average, below average? |
| Posted: 12/18/2006 06:32:00 AM |
Update (1950): In one last push of warmth before the cold moves back in, highs today in Keene reached 48. This is 9 degrees below the record of 57 set in 1928 and 15 degrees above the average of 33 for this date.
Cold front will move through tonight bring some clouds and a chance of flurries tomorrow and tomorrow night. May even see a stay snow shower during the day. Highs will be much colder than today, in the mid 30s, however if it comes above 33, then it is still above average for this date and would continue the streak (which is now at 9 days) of above normal high temperatures.
No changes to Wednesday or Thursday. Peak cold on Wednesday, and warming up on Thursday.
Friday, the first of two events that we have been monitoring for quite some time now will pull into the Northeast region bringing with it warmer temperatures and a chance of precipitation through Saturday. It still appears that cold air will stay in place through at least Friday Morning, so count on some icing for the Friday morning commute, and possibly even some wet snow (no accumulation). Any icy precipitation will change to plain rain Friday afternoon. There will be another chance of some ice mixing in Friday Night and Saturday morning before precipitation comes to an end on Saturday.
Sunday, much colder air returns (STILL probably a few degrees above average)
Christmas Day through the 27th needs to be watched very closely. There has been a signal for a storm during this time period for a good 7 or 8 days now, and there continues to be a very good consensus between the GFS emsembles and the EURO for the storm. Question arise when we get into the temperature profile of this storm plus the timing. GFS has sped up the past few runs and that is why now Christmas Day could feature some precipitation (as expressed in the NWS forecast with 40% POPs for Keene). Temperatures with this storm will decide whether it goes down as our first snowstorm or just another deluge. The cold air mass brought in behind the previous storm on Sunday should hold strong into Christmas, however that wont be enough for an all snow event. Another possibility is that the storm may be strong enough to generate its own cold air, as the case was with the 2002 Christmas storm.
Right now, a good thing to watch besides the model forecasts, are the teleconnections.
Ensemble forecast still is delivering a good signal for the 25-27 from the NAO and PNA, however as I have discussed before, the AO is going to stay positive through this period (and quite likely into the start of January). This is what will complicate the temperature forecast.
End thought: the probability of a white Christmas has diminished somewhat since my first forecast due to the loss of the potential for snowfall from the Friday event, however with the addition of the possible Christmas storm, there is still a chance for a white Christmas (somewhat last minute).
Wow! Average or below average! If we go below average for highs either on Tuesday (19) or Wednesday (20), it will be the first time since the 9th of this month! And then again, we may not go below average seeing how current forecasts are hovering around 35 (average high temperature for this time of year is 33).
Currently, parts of SNE are looking at the warmest years on record (as highlighted in the latest BOX AFD). Here is the climate section this morning:
CLIMATE...
THIS DECEMBER IN SNE IS A RUNNERS/WALKERS DREAM...COOL BUT NOT COLD
AND DRY! NOW 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF TEMPS AVG'G 10 OR MORE DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MONDAY-TODAY MAKING IT 6 IN A ROW AND ITS BEEN
ESSENTIALLY A DRY MONTH /GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.0"/! EXCELLENT FOR
COMMERCE/OUTDOORS EXCEPTING THE SNOW RELATED INDUSTRIES. I SHOULD
SAY SO FAR... EL NINOS CAN BE STORMY.
CLIMATE AT KEY 100+ YEAR LOCATIONS THROUGH TODAY...12/17
DEPARTURE FM CONSEC PCPN DEPARTURE
NORM ABOVE NORMAL CONSEC 10+ FM NORMAL
BOS AT LEAST +5.0 8 5 -1.44
BDL AT LEAST +5.7 8 5 -1.36
PVD AT LEAST +5.6 8 5 -1.43
ORH AT LEAST +6.0 8 5 -1.07
FIRST BLO NORMAL DAY SINCE 12/9 POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING NWITH CAUTION...WE NEED SOME TIME TO VERIFY
DETAILS.
2006...MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS VYING FOR ONE OF THE WARMEST
YEARS EVER IN THE PAST 100+ YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING. PLS REALIZE
THAT THE CURRENT DOUBLE DIGIT WARM ANOMALY SOON WILL END AND AVG'S
ARE GOING TO COME DOWN...
IF MY QUICK CHECK OF OUR RESOURCES IS CORRECT...
AS OF 12/16
BOSTON 53.8 IS 0.2 BELOW THE WARMEST EVER. WE JUST WONT AVG 53F/DAY
THE REST OF THE MONTH...THAT WOULD 19 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EVERY DAY
THE REST OF THE MONTH. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!
HARTFORD /BDL REPRESENTING/ IS AVG'G 0.3 ABV THE ALL TIME YEARLY
RECORD OF 52.8 IN 1990...BUT WILL SINK.
PROVIDENCE...IS AVG'G 54.3 WHICH IS 0.1 DEGS BLO THE YEARLY RECORD..
WORCESTER...IS AVG'G 50.9 WHICH 0.9 DEGS ABV THE RECORD THAT WE HAVE
REFERENCED AS OCCURRING IN 1949.
WE HAVE HASTILY GATHERED THIS DATA AND NEED MORE TIME TO REVIEW...SO
AS A CONSIDERATION FOR OUR EFFORTS...PLS GIVE US ANOTHER FEW DAYS
TO REVIEW AND LETS JUST LEAVE IT LIKE THIS. WE ARE CLOSING OUT WHAT
SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD ACROSS SNE. THANK YOU
FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS WE DO MORE RESEARCH ON THIS MATTER AND
REREVIEW THE DAILY DETAILS JUST AFTER CHRISTMAS.
No frontal precipitation is expected tonight, however some lake effect snow showers and flurries cannot be ruled out tomorrow through tomorrow night. Clearing skies will allow temperatures tomorrow night and Wednesday night to fall back into the teens. Temperatures Thursday will then rise back into the 40s, as strong high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
This will set the stage for the first of two nor'easter - type storms. Low pressure in the southern states on Thursday is expected to lift northward Friday. Our chance of wintry precipitation depends on where this low moves north. The trend is now back to the east (moderating as I promised it would), which would offer some icing through the storm with even potential for some wet snow to mix in Saturday Night, before the storm ends. What will be affecting its final path is essentially, how strong blocking forces will be to our east. Previously shown was weak blocking too far to the east, allowing the ridge to build in over the region. Now, some model solutions are returning to showing a relatively strong blocking / winter nor'easter senario. Not going to get that extreme, but the point is, we may have to contend with some icy conditions as we do last minute Christmas shopping on Saturday.
Next on the to-do list is of course monitoring the weather for Christmas Day. Right now it appears we will see average temperatures and clear skies (between storms). However the second storm coming up next week may cut it close. Currently the timing of this storm is Tuesday into Wednesday. I'll have details on that later this evening.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 12/18/2006 06:32:00 AM 
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