Yeah! Winter's here. Snow is still lacking but I dont think anyone in Keene will wake up tomorrow morning doubting the presence of winter. Tonight, temperatures will tumble below zero by a few degrees. Low pressure about 350 miles east of Cape Cod will move northeast tonight and phase with low pressure off the coast of Newfoundland. The resulting storm system will bomb to around 970mb or lower tonight. High pressure over the Great Lakes region will creep eastward, tightening the pressure gradient over New England. Winds will gust to near 30mph tonight and tomorrow. The winds combined with temperatures below zero tonight and steady in the single digits most of the day will create wind chill values of 15 to 20 below zero. Wind chills of this magnatude can develop frostbite on exposed skin in 30 minutes. Bundle up if you must go outside.

Tomorrow night will possibly be a degree or two colder than tonight, however the winds will have died down by then so wind chills will not be as much of an issue.

Temperatures moderate for the weekend. A clipper system will bring a chance of snow Sunday night to the area. Colder temperatures will flow in behind the storm, with highs back to the upper teens to near 20 and lows close to zero. Our next story is a potential coastal storm on the first of February (next Thursday). This has been supported by the CPC, and now as it is within 7 days, is under the NWS's radar gun and given mention in this evening's AFD. Some meteorologists are now jumping on the bandwagon with this one as well. The GFS is starting to show some consistency with this storm and is currently my model of choice for the period. In addition, the Euro is showing some consensus with the GFS, which is important for confidence in the storm.

The pattern is looking really good. The NAO and AO have leveled out in the negatives. The PNA is still rising but should level off soon. Western ridge a bit more than expected too. The ensemble forecasts for the NAO and AO have a good consensus for a rise back to neutral for the end of January. However, also bottom them both out for the start of February. Both forecasts call for a more extreme drop than our first fall a few days ago. A few solutions even call for -3 to -4SD for the AO! Most important is the NAO which the consensus calls for a drop to near -2SD. This would break down the southeast ridge for sure (as indicated by the GFS) and set up strong blocking to our east.

A full report on the storm potential coming up tomorrow! Stay warm tonight!