Major cold is still in the forecast for this Friday and then again for the start of February.

A short wave with low pressure in northern Quebec is swinging a cold front across New England this afternoon. Meanwhile, low pressure in the GOM with a considerable amount of moisture will move northeastward tomorrow, bringing rain, ice and snow across the southeast and Mid Atlantic. This low was our previous focus for a large storm for 1/24, and there is now a large consensus for a track well east of the region. This storm will phase with the short wave tomorrow in the northern Atlantic and bomb out under 980mb. Behind the front tonight, much colder air will move into the region. High pressure will advance southeastward behind the storm along with a massive arctic air mass. Temperatures tomorrow will stuggle to reach the upper teens. Tomorrow night, the peak of the cold, will probably feature lows below zero.
For Friday: Latest MOS data is not going as extreme as the NWS. Current zone forecast for Keene gives us 5F for a high on Friday. The point forecast says 7F. MOS data is averaging in the close to 14F and also doesnt drop us below zero for the overnight. I am tending closer to the NWS based on the latest Euro forecasts which sends the 516dm isotherm south of New England. So we will be most likely talking about 10 to 12 above zero for highs. In addition to near record cold temperatures (see the BOX NWS AFD), we will be talking about increasing NW winds generated by the advancing high pressure area and rapidly deepening low pressure to our east. Winds gusting up to 35mph are possible through the late morning Friday. The combination of the winds and cold temperatures will create wind chills down to -20F to -30F through noon Friday. Wind chill advisories or warnings may be needed. A special weather statement currently outlines this threat.

Moderating temperatures will start on Saturday as a weak southeast ridge builds in behind the ocean storm. Skies will be cloudy on Saturday as cold air advection moves in with another wave to our west. This will also create a slight chance for a snow shower in the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will continue to be pushed into the low 20's by the ridge, however on Monday, the wave pushes through bringing another period of cold: however weaker: probably upper teens to near 20 for highs. Another chance of snow showers behind the wave on Tuesday. The Euro is my model of choice through the middle of next week.

The pattern is looking good for extreme cold to start off the month of February, possibly with a significant snow event to accompany it as well. The AO went negative two days ago and is starting to level off now. It should rise to 0 or +1SD through the next week before dropping out late next week or next weekend. The NAO is also leveling out, near -2SD. The NAO will rise to around neutral before also dropping off again at the start of February. The change in the beginning of February will come with a significant winter storm (guarenteed for M/A). Depending on the track, SNE could get hit hard with heavy snow for the first time this season. The pattern is looking good for it, with -NAO blocking setting up a day or two ahead of time, we could have a more westerly track inside the 40/70 benchmark. The GFS has jumped on board with this solution, and is my model of choice for Jan 28 through Feb 6. The CPC has also made a rare and daring declaration for a storm potential as well.

Very cold temperatures (record breaking?) will last through February 7th. NAO returns to positive around February 12th, along with a +AO resurgence by the 14th. Warmth will return to the east a few days before the -AO generated cold is pushed northward in the midwest. February will likely end on a warm note.