The chance is diminishing, as I expected it would, for significant snow accumulations here in Keene on Friday. First of all, this will be a very fast moving storm. Even with heavy precipitation, it would be a 6 to 12 hour event. Second issue is the lack of a strong high pressure ridge over the Atlantic. This is allowing for the eastward trend of storm systems on the southern stream. Also, the one thing that would allow for northward movement up into New England would be rapid strengthening to wind it up enough to pull itself northward. This was a good potential a yesterday but now the latest runs of the GFS, NAM, and GGEM leave behind a piece of energy in the southern states, which would have encourages rapid intensifation otherwise. All three have moved drastically eastward to the point where Keene is partly cloudy on Friday. The UKMET is continuing to bring this low inland, which, while the I95-ers are complaining about rain, we would get a decent dumping. My model of choice continues to be the GFS which I've followed for the past 5 days or so. UKMET seems to be an outlier. Same with the NAM on the east side. Then latest run (18z) of the GFS has pulled the storm back west a little bit. I want to wait for the 00z before I commit to a forecast. There is an unbelievable spread among the models for a storm just 48hrs out. I have a feeling though that a consensus will begin to build around the GFS 18z track. Second forecast map (issued this evening) is in the winter weather outlook page. A final forecast map will be made tomorrow afternoon.

Behind this storm, high pressure will quickly move into the region, bringing with it clear skies and cold temperatures. High through this upcoming weekend will range around 20 degrees. Another coastal storm threat comes on Sunday with a clipper following behind it. The NWS has dropped POPs for Sunday with confidence on an eastward track. However, have raised POPs to 50% Monday Night as clipper system pulls a front through the region. This is when the real cold (The cold I have hyped about for two weeks now) will pour southward into the region. NWS forecast puts us with highs around 10 and lows around 5 below. Even in the BOX AFD however, they emphasize on their conservatism with this forecast. Look for the possibility of single digit highs and lows closing in on -10 for the middle of next week.