The clipper system that will bring snow to the region tomorrow night has become a bit more of a storm event than earlier thought. The low pressure area, currently located over central Lake Michigan will move east tonight and tomorrow. The storm will drag a strong cold front across the region tomorrow night, possibly followed by a second one within the same 6 hour period. Light snow will overspread the region Tuesday night, with only a dusting to 1/2" from the initial round of precipitation. However, there is growing confidence in this storm strengthing quickly off the coast and delivering a second blow to at least eastern New England. The outer fringes of the backlash may affect us late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but to no significant accumulation. Currently the NWS is sticking with 50% POPs for Keene Tuesday Night, with likely POPs just to our east. My current thinking on accumulation in Keene is 1/2" but no more. To our east, the low may strengthen enough to dump an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow on top of the 1/2 from the initial snowfall. There hasnt been a great amount of support from the GFS and NAM on a high QPF event in eastern New England, although with snow to water ratios near 15, Boston may scrape out 2 or 3 inches. The NWS even thinks some 4+" areas are possible. Anyway, no large accumulations in Keene.

Period of cold comes in behind the front for Wednesday, before a coastal storm sends a warm air mass up into SNE for Thursday afternoon into Friday. The final track of this storm is still up in the air, although the chances are increasing for at least SOME impact here in Keene. I'll issue my first forecast map and discussion tomorrow afternoon.

The following cold period for next week is looking more and more intense. The latest ensemble guidence for the AO has reached a consensus on sub -3SD as well as about 1/2 agreeing on sub -4SD. This would be incredible considering earlier this month we had a record high AO of over +4SD. Anyway, this will mean arctic cold will have no barriers between the north pole and the United States. We could seriously have a shot at a few records before February is all said and done.