UPDATE (1500 1/19):
Forecast period 5:
The GFS and UKMET forecasts for day 6 and 7 show major coastal bomb for New England, yielding crippling snowfall amounts across New England. As said in the BOX AFD, it is still a long way away.

For the record:
My focus dates that I had mentioned a week or two ago were the 19th, the 23rd, and the 27th.
Current status:
The 19th storm has come and gone with little accumulation in Keene due to a dry slot that kept everything besides flurries out the area. However, Eastern New England got hit with 1 - 3 inches in MA and NH to around a foot in Maine. So 7-day verification on my part isn't TOO bad, as I was downplaying this storm anyway.
Light snow event Monday possible (maybe a dusting). Wasn't mentioned in the long term outlooks.
The 23rd event is shifted over to the 25th now. The storm is still looking good, and discussion in the meteorological community is of a potential major snow storm for Thursday.
The 27th has been shifted to the 29th. Rob G. is still talking about this one with enthusiam (he was the one who was first talking about the storm in general).

BOX AFD:

THU AND FRI...
WOW!!! HOW ABOUT THAT 12Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET? A CLASSIC NEW ENGLAND 
COASTAL BOMB WITH SYSTEM BECOMING VERTICAL STACKED...YIELDING A LONG 
DURATION WINTER EVENT HERE. ALTHOUGH...WE MUST BE REALISTIC AS THIS IS 
STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED 
DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROF AND SURFACE LOW.  
THIS IS SIGNIFICANT AND COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A TREND. 12Z GGEM 
NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. 

LOTS OF MIXED SIGNALS AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER THE LONG WAVE 
PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME DOES FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT 
HERE IN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A +PNA ALONG WITH A -NAO. IN ADDITION... 
RESEARCH FROM THE GOOD FOLKS AT UALBANY INDICATE IT/S DURING THIS 
TYPE OF PHASE CHANGE...PNA BECOMING POSITIVE AND THE NAO BECOMING 
NEGATIVE THAT CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS A LARGE PRECIP EVENT HERE IN THE 
NORTHEAST.

LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...ESPECIALLY ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE 
WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES AND ITS AMPLITUDE...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY 
IMPACT THE CONFIGURATION AND DEPTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF HERE IN 
THE EAST.  HOWEVER ENOUGH SUPPORT HERE TO KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE 
FORECAST THU AND FRI. STAY TUNED!

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UPDATE (1200 1/19):
Forecast period 3 and 4:

The GFS and NAM have yet to move the 23-24 storm west.
The 12z Euro from yesterday has a 975mb low coming together in under 24 hours:


Currently the GFS is the furthest east, with the low exitting the coast of SC before getting any further north. The NAM gives hope to Mid Atlantic winter enthusiasts, bringing measurable precipitation into southern NJ before the low moves further east. I am not losing hope on this one YET, but confidence is low in anything significant at this time.

The HPC QPF map for Monday:

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There are five parts to the forecast at this time.

1. The current storm which is moving up the coast right now and will be affecting our weather through tomorrow afternoon with snow and wind.

2. Cold temperatures return to the region on Saturday and Sunday in addition to continued gusty winds. Low wind chills, possibly advisory level, will affect us through Sunday.

3. Clipper system will swing through Sunday Night into Monday Night. Secondary development is still possible, but right now it looks like just snow showers.

4. The 23rd event, which is now looking something more like the 24th. I havent commented about this one for a couple days now because the possibility was diminishing somewhat as all the model guidence tossed the low out to sea. However, the latest Euro run has brought it back close to the coast and bullseyes our area. Considering the Euro was the first to push the storm east and all the models followed suit later, the next thing to watch for are the runs tonight and tomorrow for a switch back west.

5. A very cold end to January appears to be in store. The NAO, which dives negative for the 23rd, along with the AO which all guidence brings negative now, will help an enhanced flow of arctic air into New England.

Details on the 2 through 5 will be coming up tomorrow, so stay tuned.

Forecast period #1 is being covered thoroughly in the winter weather outlook page.