The low down in the southeast has taken a 40 mile jog to the north. The 06z position from this morning was about 20 miles south of the model guidence, but the 12z position is in fact north of the model guidence for the first time in its 48hr existence.

The 12z NAM started about 15 minutes ago and is out to 36 hours right now. It is considerably further west compared to the last run, and is also wetter.

I expect the GFS to follow suit with the westward shift, based on the low position at initialization. If the low returns to a track at least remaining south of Tennessee, then the 18z models will likely go east and we can throw out the 12z runs. If the low stays north, expect a lot less snow from this storm.