Already, we are entering a below normal regime for late April. High temperatures will be stuck down in the 50's today as thick cloud cover prevents any heating from the sun. Low pressure sitting just off the Massachusetts coast will move slowly eastward today. Scattered showers will continue to move from the northwest behind the low. Our best chance of any rain today will be this morning. There are some locally heavier showers currently entering Vermont. Rainfall will be less than a tenth of an inch, except maybe .15" in the heavier showers. The showers will eventually move north and east as the low moves off.

Our attention then turns to low pressure currently about 50 miles north of Minnesota. This low will move east-northeast into southern Quebec by 3am tomorrow morning. Showers out ahead of the low will reach Keene by 3am. An area of heavier showers out ahead of the associated cold front will reach Keene by 5am and continue through 8am. Marginal instability coupled with the frontal force will allow for the slight possibility of embedded thunderstorms during this three-hour period. Some of the thunderstorms will contain gusty winds. The front will clear the area by 10am, and most of the showers will be over. Total rainfall will be on the order of .15" to .25" however as much as .4" could occur where thunderstorms pass over. A chance of a few showers behind the storm will continue through 3pm, otherwise, skies will become partly sunny as drier air flows in behind the front.

The front will completely clear the region by 5pm tomorrow, allowing for partly cloudy skies overnight with temperatures dropping down into the mid 30's.

Skies will become mostly sunny for Tuesday morning, as drier air continues to work into the region. In fact, surface dew points will drop to around 30F, with 850mb dew points as low as 5F! Relative humidity will be around 20%. The air will therefore be very stable, with the current model soundings forecasting lifted indices around +10 to +15. The sunny skies will heat the earth enough for high temperatures to reach the low 60's (around normal).

Low pressure in the Great Lakes region Tuesday will move east into New England Tuesday Night. This storm system will trigger strong to severe thunderstorms from the midwest to the Ohio Valley. The magnitude of the northward projection of the low will determine if SNE gets in on some of the thunderstorms. There is a significant instability gradiant forecasted across Pennsyvania. Right now that is too far south for any possibility of convective development in the area. Heavy rain will be a threat for New Jersey into Connecticut with amounts on the order of 1" to 1.5" through Wednesday morning. These are places that have been under the gun twice earlier this month, with over 10 inches of rain. Flooding will definitely be a concern there.

Low pressure will move off the New England coast later Wednesday morning. Cloudy skies will remain in the area through the early evening. Skies will clear late Wednesday Night, and will remain so through the start of next weekend as high pressure to the west takes control. Temperatures will stay on the cool side, and we may even have to contend with a frost or freeze Friday morning.

The first week of May will be slightly below normal in the Northeast with highs generally in the 60's through the first week or so. Models are converging on the forecast of an omega block through this period. Above average temperatures will be the rule in the midwestern states with periodic severe thunderstorm events. Eventually, the block will break down somewhat and slowly shift east. This will begin with a strong piece of energy down from the Gulf of Alaska, and end with a significant severe thunderstorm event in the midwest around the 9th of May. Temperatures in the midwest will return to normal for the middle of the month. Highs on the 7th through the 9th in New England could reach above normal out ahead of the storm system with temperatures possibly up to around 80. There could be moderate instability even up into New England, so the 9th or the 10th will likely feature our first thunderstorms of the year. After the brief 3 day warm up, the storm will cut off our southerly flow with high pressure confined to our south. Therefore, expect another period of highs in the low 60's between the 10th and 13th. Then, summer will get going for the last two weeks of the month with temperatures 1 or 2 degrees above normal.