Showers and thunderstorms will be the rule through the weekend keeping the weather dreary and cool.

-Through 5pm-
Skies have cleared up somewhat in the past 3 hours. Skies will remain partly cloudy with a bit of a haze through this evening. Coupled with a warm front to our south, temperatures have risen 15 degrees just since noon. Warming will begin to level off as we reach the day-time maximum by 4pm, however we do have a shot at 80 degrees here in Keene. Dew points have risen 10 degrees since this morning, and now sit in the low 50's. Dew points will remain between 52 and 57 degrees through this evening, possibly bumping heat indices up a degree or two. Winds have begun to pick up and could gust over 20mph out of the southwest ahead of the warm front.

-Tonight through Wednesday Night-
Thunderstorms have begun to develop behind the warm front, about 50 miles south of low pressure over Toronto and 200 miles east of the trailing cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to build through 6pm. These storms have the potential to become severe, with winds up to 50mph and hail up to .5" in diameter. There is also a threat for heavy rain from these storms. The best time for thunderstorms will be between 5:30pm and 8pm. Heating will allow storms to retain strong characteristics including gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain. Temperatures will stay above 75 through the arrival of the storms, but will fall down to around 64 by midnight, and continue to fall to around 57 by daybreak.

The thunderstorm threat will end after midnight, although scattered showers will continue through Wednesday morning as we stay in the warm and moist sector of the storm system and near the warm frontal boundary. A cold front will approach the region by the late morning, with thunderstorms out ahead of it. These storms could be strong, but the morning air will be more stable. Still, prepare for the threat of heavy rains, which could create ponding of water on roads into Wednesday evening. The storm system will move to our south by 8pm, moving us into a more stable air mass by the evening. Back-end showers will taper off by midnight, and skies will become partly cloudy. Since we will still be in the warm sector through at the afternoon, highs will climb to around 75 despite cloud cover. Temperatures will fall fairly steadily during the evening, reaching 50 by midnight, and continuing to the low 40's by Thursday morning.

-Thursday through Monday (5/21)-
A break in the rain is in store on Thursday, with partly cloudy skies behind the departing storm system. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only reaching the mid 50's (15 degrees below normal). The last time the high was below 57 was the 29th of April (55). Lows Thursday Night will drop down to the upper 30's.

The forecast becomes tricky for Thursday Night through Sunday. The storm system tomorrow will move out to sea on Thursday, but a second low will form along the cold front, off the Carolina coast. The frontal boundary to the north will bend northwest, spreading showers into parts of New England Thursday Night, and spreading from SE to NW into New Hampshire by Friday morning. The actual track of this low will be a huge factor in the weather through the weekend. Right now, it appears that the low will move to within 100 miles of Cape Cod by Saturday morning, and strengthen steadily into a formidable nor'easter. If the low tracks close enough to the coast, the possibility exists for very heavy rainfall through Sunday with total amounts up to 5 inches in some areas. Flooding is a concern for this period, so it will have to be watched closely. NWS POPs remain below likely for these days because of the uncertainty in the track. Due to cloud cover, high temperatures will stay between 57 and 61 through Saturday, with a slow warm up beginning Sunday. High pressure will move in on Monday to allow for clearing skies and temperatures rebounding up to around 70, normal for this time of the year.

-Through the first week of June-

Coming up later...