Near term - through 9pm this evening -
...Clear skies greeted central and southern New Englanders this morning. Temperatures dropped to 46 in Keene with a dew point of 45, but has since then risen to 54/50. Across the region, lows in the 40s inland, with 50s along the coast was the rule. Skies should remain sunny through this morning as dew points stay very low throughout the atmosphere, with 850mb dps at 0C, 700mb dps at -20C, and 500mb dps at -50C.

A relatively dry cold front currently situated in northern New England will make its way southward this afternoon. There are some high clouds currently associated with the front, and with increasing moisture out ahead, expect cirrus increase through the early afternoon with cumulus building by the mid afternoon. Moisture will begin to increase at 800mb (6000ft) and convective temperatures of 21 to 23C should be reached by 2pm. Mid level lapse rates of 6 C/km will help in the development of isolated showers this afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies through this evening.

850mb temperatures are right around 10C, and with good mixing, we should be able to reach the 70s easily today. Due to increasing cloud contamination this afternoon, will not reach max potential of around 77, but rather 73 to 75. Will find highest temperatures today in CT and central MA with highs 77 to 79, and coolest along the southeast coast with temperatures 70 to 72.

Still will have some gusty winds today, although lighter than yesterday. Expect some increase in frequency this evening as the front passes through. 200mb jet winds are out of the west at 115kts over Keene. 850mb winds of 15 to 20kts should mix down to the surface this evening.

Short term - Tonight through Sunday night -
...Skies will remain partly cloudy through 06z tomorrow with high dew points at 6000 to 9000ft. Clearing will begin to occur towards daybreak as short wave moves off, and dew points settle back, however some patchy fog may linger in the valley areas that received showers on Saturday. Main temperature falls should happen during that time period. 850mb temperatures will fall behind the front, around 4C to 6C in the morning with lows in the middle 40's again. This would support maximum temperatures only around 60, however, 850mb temperatures will begin to increase to around 8C toward the afternoon as another short wave approaches. This will help high reach the upper 60's, still 10 to 15 degrees below average... not a very summery start to July. Clouds will begin to increase in the late afternoon as dew points increase again around 9000ft with mid level lapse rates back up to 5 to 6 C/km. This will once again support isolated shower or thunderstorm development in the afternoon with otherwise partly cloudy skies.

Short wave moves off Sunday evening, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as high clouds linger. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40's by Monday morning.

Long term - Monday through Friday 7/6 -
...Cyclonic flow from the departing short wave will continue to affect New England through Monday. Skies will remain partly cloudy, with the continued chance of an isolated shower. Main threat of precipitation will move east as the day goes on. With temperatures aloft increasing to near 8C, highs will manage 70 to 72.

High pressure will move in Monday Night staying through Tuesday morning. Mid level dew points will fall again, allowing clearing skies although with high level moisture, cannot rule out patchy cirrus through the early afternoon. Rising heights will allow low temperatures to stay in the upper 40s to near 50 Tuesday morning, which will help in higher afternoon temperatures than the previous few days. Surface temperatures will see a fairly large jump through the early afternoon with highs reaching the low to mid 70's as surface convergence moves east from NY state, with low level lapse rates near 11 to 12 C/km. The low level instability will assist in mid level cloud formation in the late afternoon.

High pressure moves offshore Tuesday Night, with 850mb temperatures up to 9 to 10C. Lows Wednesday morning will stay up into the low to mid 50's. A warm front will approach the region from the southwest on Wednesday with increasing and thickening cloud cover throughout the day. Overrunning precipitation will reach the region in the afternoon in the form of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Dew points will spike out ahead of the front, with RH at 100% up through 10000ft. Despite rising temperatures aloft, cloud cover will keep highs around 70 to 73. Winds will shift to the southeast at the surface, but a moderate westerly jet will remain intact aloft. A weak short wave will push through out ahead of the front Wednesday night, pushing more warm and humid air into the region. Winds will shift to the south to southwest at all levels as the wave moves through.

Thursday could be a day to watch for significant weather. To begin with, a stronger short wave will move into New England Thursday morning, bringing rising dew points at all levels, and pushing 850mb temperatures up to 10C to 11C. This wave could potentially bring heavy rainfall as the air will be juiced up from the newly arrived airmass. HPC outlines rainfall amounts between .25 and .75 through 12z Thursday. Warm front will follow closely, which will bring temperatures aloft near 12 to 14C. Despite cloud cover, highs will push to the upper 70s to near 80. Next in line is the cold front which will move through on Thursday night. Out ahead of it, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread. At this time, it appears any severe thunderstorms will remain in the Mid Atlantic region, where instability will be greater. However, heavy rainfall could be a threat across central New England. The 00z run of the GFS shows widespread amounts greater than 2 inches, with areas of eastern NY and VT receiving over 3 inches. This is still in the 5.5 to 7 day range, but should be monitored. Details and specific forecasts will be posted in the severe weather outlook page over the coming days.

On Friday, clouds, showers, and thunderstorms will continue as a second cold front moves southeast through New England. High temperatures will fall back into the lower 70's.

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Note:
Extended forecast will be issued tomorrow including July into early August: A cool start to July, but a warm finish?

&&

Forecaster: SL
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Weather history:

6/30 in Keene, NH:
normal high is 79, record is 98 (set in 1964)
normal low is 56, record is 36 (set in 1936)

Astronomy:

Sunrise: 5:13AM Sunset: 8:32PM
Moonrise: 9:12PM Moonset: 4:43AM
-Full moon, 100% illuminated
Length of visible light: 16 hours 29 minutes
Length of day: 15 hours 18 minutes
-Tomorrow will be 37 seconds shorter

6/30 across the United States:

1886 - The second destructive hurricane in nine days hit the Apalachicola-Tallahassee area. (David Ludlum)

1942 - The temperature at Portland, OR, hit 102 degrees, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - The entire state of Pennsylvania was declared a disaster area as a result of the catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Agnes, which claimed 48 lives, and caused 2.1 billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Hot weather prevailed in the Pacific Northwest, with readings above 100 degrees reported as far north as southern British Columbia. Yakima, WA, reported a record high of 100 degrees, while temperatures near the Washington coast hovered near 60 degrees all day. Thunderstorms prevailed from southwest Texas to New England. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph at Gettysburg, PA, killed one person. High winds and large hail caused more than five million dollars damage to property and crops in Lancaster County, PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in eastern Kansas drenched Worden with 12.21 inches of rain, and a wall of water two to four feet deep swept through Lone Star, KS, flooding every home in the town. Up to ten inches of rain was reported southeast of Callaway, NE. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Winfield, KS. Seventeen cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth, MN, with a reading of 36 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Winnfield, LA, reported 22.52 inches of rain in three days, and more than thirty inches for the month, a record for June. Shreveport LA received a record 17.11 inches in June, with a total for the first six months of the year of 45.55 inches. Thunderstorms also helped produce record rainfall totals for the month of June of 13.12 inches at Birmingham AL, 14.66 inches at Oklahoma City, OK, 17.41 inches at Tallahassee FL, 9.97 inches at Lynchburg, VA, and more than 10.25 inches at Pittsburgh, PA. Pittsburgh had also experienced a record wet month of May. (The National Weather Summary)

Yesterday (6/29):
Keene: H 73, L 54