July has started out on a very chilly note. Temperatures in the northeast ran 10 to 15 degrees below normal today. This is largely impart due to strong high pressure out west with a very weak and eastern Bermuda High. This has pushed a stubborn tough over eastern Canada and the northeast US, which has kept the flow of storm systems active. This set up with continue through the next two weeks, with generally cool weather in New England with the exception of brief warm ups out ahead of storms.

GFS Ensembles favor a steady fall in the PNA to closer to neutral by the middle of July. NAO is projected to stay negative through the middle of July, however is showing an strengthening strend, and will likely enter the positive stage by the last two weeks of the month. The AO has more of a projected strengthening. All this means is that the ridge out west will eventually break down and shift east into the middle of the nation. Expect heat throughout the plains states after the 15th. The NAO starting to go positive is a sign of a building Bermuda High towards the west. It is questionable how far west it will stretch, and the ridging in the plains suggests a trough setting up for the Great Lakes region into northern NY state. Confidence is high for above normal temperatures along the east coast at least for the I95 corridor. Further west is still in question, but will at least be warmer than the current picture. The trough set up in the Great Lakes will mean frequent short waves moving south into New England. Expect severe weather events to stay common through July. Heat will build up for August. Looks like the third of the country east of the Mississippi will have above average temperatures. Ridging in the southwest will still be stubborn through August, so not expecting any cooling off for that part of the country.