Near term - through 9pm this evening -
...Skies started out mostly sunny in southern New England this morning with partly cloudy skies for central New England, and mainly cloudy skies further north. A short wave in Quebec will drop south today, bringing in another reinforcing shot of cold air. Cumulus will be developing late this morning and early afternoon as cold air aloft remains in the area. Mid level lapse rates of up to 8 C/km across New England will help in the formation of showers again this afternoon. It appears to be a lesser threat to the south than yesterday, with central VT and NH north getting the most of the clouds and rain. There will still be a slight chance of a shower in the evening here in Keene, but a lesser chance than yesterday due to the more northerly trajectory of the storm, and lack of low level moisture.

Temperatures started out at 48 in Keene, and have risen steady so far this morning. Early cloud contamination will force the rise to level off toward the afternoon however. 850mb temperatures started out at 8C, but will fall back to 6C with the short wave approaching. The north to northwest flow at the surface reinforced by the short wave this afternoon will keep highs around 70 to 72 in Keene - 10 degrees below normal. The coldest spots in New England today will be where the clouds and rain hit, mainly to the north, as well as Cape Cod and the islands, where winds off the waters will keep highs in the 60's. The warmest areas will be central CT into central MA where highs will reach the upper 70's, maybe nearing 80 in Hartford.

Winds will begin to pick up a little today with the approach of the short wave. 250mb jet winds are out of the west at 80kts this morning. Surface winds are mainly under 5kts. Expect some gusting to 10 to 15mph later this evening.

Short term - Tonight through Monday night -
... Partly cloudy skies prevail through tonight, loss of diurnal heating will allow for some clearing of mid level clouds with mainly high clouds remaining. The last short wave, a weakest of the past few days, will swing through tonight. Expecting only an increase in high level clouds at the passage. Low level moisture will be lacking, fairly confident in dry weather tonight. Temperatures dropping back to the mid 40's - 2 or 3 degrees colder than this morning.

Monday could be colder than today. Short wave passage overnight will bring a final increase in northerly flow ushering in more cold air. Right now, it is a close call as to which day will be colder. 850mb temperatures will be the coldest in a very since the high of 57 in the middle of June - may not even reach 5C. High pressure in the Great Lakes region will try to take control of the weather, however trough to our east will continue to affect New England with isolated shower and thunderstorm development in mainly eastern New England. Keene could be affected by a shower or storm in the early afternoon - chance will diminish through the day. Otherwise, skies will begin mostly sunny with diurnal cloud formation once again in the afternoon. Cloud contamination will not help with temperatures very much. Monday's highs may not reach 70. At this point, looks like highs tomorrow between 68 and 70.

Trough moves off to the east Monday Night, and high pressure will follow closely. Winds will become light and variable, with clearing skies as high pressure takes control. Radiational cooling will drop lows into the mid 40's again.

Long term - Tuesday through Saturday 7/7 -
... High pressure is centered to our east on Tuesday, which will develop a southerly flow over New England. Skies will start mostly sunny with a gradual rise in cirrus throughout the day, but increasing low level moisture will form low level cumulus in the afternoon. 850mb temperatures will be on the increase, reaching 8C to 9C by the afternoon. Despite a cold start, highs will rise into the upper 70s in Keene, with the temperatures in the low 80s to the south and west.

Moisture continues to be on the increase through Tuesday night, with rising warm air advection, could have some scattered showers affect Keene into Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will be much warmer, staying in the mid 50's in Keene to near 60 to the south.

Wednesday - Independence Day - is a low confidence forecast period. Much will depend on how far north the warm front reaches. Right now it appears that front will stall to the west, with flow of moisture keeping clouds, showers, and thunderstorms in the area throughout the day. 850mb temperatures will be on the rise, however cloud cover will keep temperatures down around 70.

Short wave along the front punches through on Wednesday Night, with frontal passage following on Thursday. Right now, looks like low and front move further north than originally expected, which will keep widespread rain out of the area, removing the threat of high rainfall totals that was mentioned yesterday. With this situation, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies will scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Temperatures will rise to near 80 on Thursday, although high will depend greatly on how far north the low goes, and how much cloud cover remains.

850mb temperatures will be up to around 12C to 15C on Friday with surface dew points in the 60's. Partly cloudy skies will help in temperatures rising quickly in the morning. However, cold front moves through Friday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms. Lows drop back to the 50's Friday Night.

Saturday will be drier but will keep relative warmth in the area with highs in the upper 70's -still 5 degrees below norm.

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Note:
Extended forecast will be issued later today including July into early August: Increasing strength of Bermuda High will promote East Coast heat wave into late July.

&&

Forecaster: SL
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Weather history:

7/1 in Keene, NH:
normal high is 81, record is 98 (set in 1964)
normal low is 55, record is 34 (set in 1936)

Astronomy:

Sunrise: 5:13AM Sunset: 8:32PM
Moonrise: 9:51PM Moonset: 5:50AM
-Full moon, 99% illuminated
Length of visible light: 16 hours 28 minutes
Length of day: 15 hours 18 minutes
-Tomorrow will be 43 seconds shorter

7/1 across the United States:

1792 - A tremendous storm (a tornado or hurricane) hit Philadelphia and New York City. Many young people were drowned while out boating on that Sunday. (David Ludlum)

1911 - The high of just 79 degrees at Phoenix AZ was their coolest daily maximum of record for the month of July. The normal daily high for July 1st is 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1979 - It snowed almost half a foot (5.8 inches) at Stampede Pass WA, a July record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Lake Charles LA was drenched with a month's worth of rain during the early morning. More than five inches of rain soaked the city, including 2.68 inches in one hour. A thunderstorm in the southern Yakima Valley of Washington State produced high winds which downed trees up to six feet in diameter. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Twenty-six cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 48 degrees at Providence RI, 48 degrees at Roanoke VA, 49 degrees at Stratford CT, and 48 degrees at Wilmington, DE, were records for the month of July. Boston MA equalled their record for July with a low of 50 degrees. Five inches of snow whitened Mount Washington NH. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure system which was once Tropical Storm Allison continued to drench parts of Mississippi, Louisiana and eastern Texas. Late night thunderstorms produced 12.58 inches of rain at Biloxi, MS, in six hours, and 10.73 inches at Gulfport MS. Flooding in Mississippi over the first six days of the month caused 55 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Yesterday (6/30):
Keene: H 73, L 46