Summary - The week ahead -
...Beautiful day ahead today with highs in the mid 70's. Wednesday and Thursday will be stormy mainly in the afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 70's. Showers will linger into Friday night, with temperatures reaching into the upper 70's. The weekend looks dry, with highs in the upper 70s. Monday will have a chance of showers, with highs reaching the lower 80's.

Near term - through 9pm this evening -
...High pressure is centered just west of the region this morning. It will slide east of New England this afternoon, which will develop a southerly flow over New England. Skies will start mostly sunny with a gradual rise in cirrus throughout the day, but increasing low level moisture will form low level cumulus in the afternoon. 850mb temperatures will be on the increase, reaching 8C to 9C by the afternoon. Despite a cold start, highs will rise into the mid 70s in Keene, with the temperatures nearing 80s to the south and west. All in all, a beautiful day for fireworks in Keene.



Short term - Tonight through Wednesday night -
...Moisture continues to be on the increase through tonight, with rising warm air advection, could have some scattered showers affect Keene into tomorrow morning. Low temperatures will be much warmer, staying in the low to mid 50's in Keene to near 60 to the south.

Wednesday - Independence Day - is a low confidence forecast period. Much will depend on how far north the warm front reaches. Right now it appears that front will stall to the west, with flow of moisture keeping clouds, showers, and thunderstorms in the area throughout the afternoon. 850mb temperatures will be on the rise, however cloud cover will keep temperatures down in the low to mid 70's.



Wednesday Night, short wave punches through with widespread showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected at this time, however some of the storms could contain heavy rainfall. Lows will be kept up in the lower 60's due to cloud cover and increasing southerly winds.

Long term - Thursday through Monday 7/9 -
...Frontal passage occurs Thursday morning. With this situation, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Dew points will reach the upper 60s to near 70 and PWATs will range between 1.7 and 1.9, so heavy rain could occur in some thunderstorms. Generally looking at rainfall totals of 1.0 to 2.5 through Thursday, with the highest amounts (isolated areas >3 inches) where thunderstorms train over. With relative instability and strong winds aloft, some of the thunderstorms that develop on Thursday could be severe. This is a situation that needs monitoring. Detailed updates on this can be found in the severe weather outlook page. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70's on Thursday, although highs will depend greatly on how far north the low goes, and how much cloud cover remains.

850mb temperatures will be up to around 12C to 15C on Friday with surface dew points in the 60's. Partly cloudy skies will help in temperatures rising quickly in the morning. However, cold front moves through Friday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms. Lows drop back to the 50's Friday Night.

Another weak front sweeps down from Canada on Saturday, but right now it appears it will be dry. Temperatures will stay up in the upper 70's to near 80. A warming trend will continue into the early part of next week with highs into the low 80's on Sunday. A warm front will approach the region from the southwest on Monday bringing a chance of showers. Highs will reach the low 80's. However, a rising AO and NAO coupled with a forecasted rapid fall of the PNA could mean much hotter conditions than currently forecasted for Monday.

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Forecaster: SL
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Weather history:

7/3 in Keene, NH:

normal high is 81, record is 99 (set in 1966)
normal low is 55, record is 38 (set in 1929)

Astronomy:

Sunrise: 5:14AM Sunset: 8:31PM
Moonrise: 10:49PM Moonset: 8:16AM
-Waning Gibbous, 90% illuminated
Length of visible light: 16 hours 26 minutes
Length of day: 15 hours 16 minutes
-Tomorrow will be 51 seconds shorter

7/3 across the United States:

1966 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at Philadelphia reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford CT, 105 degrees at Allentown PA, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City established all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Lightning struck and killed three men playing golf on a course near Kingsport TN. The three men had sought shelter from the rain under a tall tree on a small hill. Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in New Jersey, with 5.2 inches reported at Trenton State College. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms around Fort Worth, TX, produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Burleson, along with two inches of rain in thirty minutes. The record low of 46 degrees at Youngstown OH was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the eastern U.S. Bowling Green, KY, was soaked with 4.99 inches of rain during the morning hours, and up to ten inches of rain deluged Oconee County SC. The temperature at Alamosa, CO, soared to a record warm reading of 91 degrees, following a record low of 35 degrees the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Yesterday (7/2):
Keene: H 70, L 43