Summary - The week ahead -
...Thunderstorms, some severe, will roll through the region today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 70's. Skies will clear up for the weekend with temperatures reaching the mid 80's on Sunday. Heat will arrive for Monday with temperatures around 90. Thunderstorms will threaten every afternoon early next week.

Near term - through 9pm this evening -
...Main story today will be the threat for severe thunderstorms. Skies started out cloudy across the region with a thick layer of stratus with patchy fog also present in many areas. Scattered showers will continue to threaten this morning, but the chance will diminish as the warm front continues to lift northward. Temperatures started in the lower 60's and have risen slowly this morning. How warm Keene gets today will depend greatly on cloud cover. If the sun can come out for a period this afternoon, it is possible for temperatures to reach the lower 80's, otherwise mid to upper 70's will be the highest they get today.

Cold front currently entering the Ohio Valley with thunderstorms ongoing this morning, will swing through the region this evening. Out ahead of it, a line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area. If some solar heating takes place, isolated storms out ahead of the main line are possible. The biggest threat will be damaging winds as bow echoes develop this afternoon with mid level winds between 40 and 50kts. Dew points in the 60's and PWATs between 1.6 and 1.9 will create heavy downpours in many of the storms. Mid level lapse rates of 7 C/km may be sufficient for marginal hail, severe hail is questionable however. Finally, there will be some shear present this afternoon, meaning supercell thunderstorms are not yet out of the question.

Short term - Tonight through Friday night -
...Thunderstorms continue to threaten through midnight, with a chance of showers remaining after midnight. Temperatures slowly fall to the lower 60's with insulating
cloud cover keeping them up. Clouds start to break up towards daybreak with partly cloudy skies for the morning and afternoon. With the assistence of solar heating, temperatures will reach the upper 70s, possibly to 81 or 82. Another cold front will move through with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Severe parameters will not be as good as today, but will still be enough for a few strong to severe storms in the afternoon with a larger threat of hail as an upper level cold pool moves over the area.

Thunderstorms wrap up Friday night. Frontal passage will bring clearing skies. Radiational cooling will drop temperatures into the lower 50's.

Long term - Saturday through Wednesday 7/11 -
...Skies will start mostly sunny on Saturday. Diurnal cumulus will build in the afternoon with a cold pool aloft. Short wave passing to the north will bring a slight chance of a shower, otherwise partly cloudy skies through the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 70's.

Warm front moves through the region on Sunday. Highs will reach the mid 80s with the help of strong southwest winds. On Monday, 850mb temperatures move rise to 20C. Sunny skies will bring high temperatures to around 90. Depending on the location of the warm front, a few afternoon thunderstorms may affect the region. Otherwise, a moderate cap will keep any convection from forming. The same will go for Tuesday. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80's, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Front closer to the region will create a greater confidence in thunderstorm development. Front crosses on Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms out ahead. Highs reach the lower 80's. Any thunderstorms between Monday and Wednesday will have the potential to be severe as instability and mid level winds will be strong. SPC extended outlook outlines New England for the possibility of severe storms next week.

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Forecaster: SL
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Weather history:

7/5 in Keene, NH:

normal high is 81, record is 95 (set in 1999)
normal low is 55, record is 38 (set in 1927)

Astronomy:

Sunrise: 5:16AM Sunset: 8:31PM
Moonrise: 11:34PM Moonset: 10:44AM
-Waning Gibbous, 74% illuminated
Length of visible light: 16 hours 24 minutes
Length of day: 15 hours 15 minutes
-Tomorrow will be 58 seconds shorter

7/5 across the United States:

1891 - Sixteen horses were killed by hail, and many more have to be put to death due to injuries from a hailstorm at Rapid City, SD. (The Weather Channel)

1900 - A spectacular three day fire began when a bolt of lightning struck a refinery in Bayonne NJ. (David Ludlum)

1916 - A hurricane produced 82 mph winds, an 11.6 foot tide, and a barometric pressure of 28.92 inches at Mobile, AL. (David Ludlum)

1937 - The temperature at Medicine Lake, MT, soared to 117 degrees to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1937 - Midale and Yellow Grass in Saskatchewan hit 113 degrees to establish an all-time record high for Canada that same day. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - The morning low at Death Valley CA was 103 degrees, and the high that afternoon was 120 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked south central Kansas for the second morning in a row. Thunderstorm winds again gusted to 80 mph at Clearwater, and in the Wichita area reached 100 mph. Twenty-five persons were injured at a trailer park at El Dorado Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes in Montana and three in North Dakota. Baseball size hail was reported at Shonkin, MT, and wind gusts to 85 mph were reported south of Fordville, ND. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Fargo ND with a reading of 106 degrees. Muskegon, MI, equalled their July record with a high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Moisture from what once was Tropical Storm Allison triggered thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, which deluged Wilmington, DE, with a record 6.83 inches of rain in 24 hours, including 6.37 inches in just six hours. Up to ten inches of rain was reported at Claymont, northeast of Wilmington. July 1989 was thus the wettest month in seventy years for Wilmington, with a total of 12.63 inches of rain. Alamosa CO reported an all-time record high of 94 degrees, and Pierre, SD, hit 113 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Yesterday (7/4):
Keene: H 75, L 46