The last of the significant summertime heat held strong over the region yesterday with temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's (90 in Keene). A cold front brought thunderstorms across central and Northern New England yesterday evening. Some of these storms were severe with damaging winds, hail, and frequent lightning. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued in the afternoon in effect until 9pm. Thunderstorms grazed Keene around 830pm with a mocking tenth inch of rain to an area that has seen only a tenth inch of rain since the 14th of August. Keene has received only .9" of rain this month, 2.6" below normal.

There wont be any relief from this drought for the next 5 days. Today, the front stalled out near the Mass turnpike will keep clouds in the region. Theta-E boundary layer axis combined with short wave moisture will keep a slight chance of showers in the area. Further southeast, invest 96L will provide a higher chance of rain across Cape Cod. See the Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. Temperatures will be much cooler today to the relief of many I would imagine. Highs will struggle into the mid 70's under cloud cover and a northerly wind.

Labor Day weekend continues to look nice. Temperatures will be on a gradual rise, reaching the mid 80's by Monday. Skies will be sunny all three days. A weak frontal boundary will bring a chance of showers and gusty winds to the region Monday Night. The front stalls to the south for Tuesday and into Wednesday, which may keep lingering showers south of the MA/NH border. Temperatures will be back down into the upper 70's for Tuesday and Wednesday, and then another gradual warm up will begin on Thursday.

Long term: PNA in break down mode, and NAO and AO around neutral will combine for slightly above average temperatures through the middle of September. PNA rebounds toward the end of the month. AO with a gradual drop will bring allow more frequent cP air masses into the upper midwest. Brief burst of sub-arctic air moves through for the start of October with first deep freeze and potential for a few snowflakes in central and northern New England. NAO up to neutral again by the end of October with PNA and AO dropping out. Expect slightly above norm temps in northeast through Halloween. Front moves through start of November with building high in midwest. Cold and snow potential possible for New England around the 5th.

Overall, while AO will trend negative for the start of the winter, PNA will be stubborn with frequent troughs out west. Expecting mainly zonal flow east of the Rockies which means any cold air masses that punches into New England will be short lived. A neutral NAO will allow ridge to build over Atlantic and a southerly connection into the northeast. With this in mind, we likely wont be short of moisture. However, with the set-up, it appears wet and cold periods wont overlap often.