Cloudy and foggy weather this morning maybe made you think of autumn (along with the fact that school starts today). However, skies will clear this afternoon and temperatures will soar as high pressure stays in control of the region. Highs will reach into the upper 80's to near 90.

Tonight, partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 50's. We will wake up to some fog again tomorrow morning, but clouds will likely stick around through the day as a storm system (currently entering the Great Lakes region) moves in from the west.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the region in the afternoon. There is a slight chance of a strong thunderstorm or two as the atmosphere destabilizes out ahead of the cold front. In addition, PWATs between 1.5 to 1.75 indicate heavy rain potential. The latest NAM run forecasts moisture pulled in from off the Carolina coast. The would result in significant rain accumulations, but at this point the NAM is an outlier. Highs will reach into the low to mid 80's.

Showers and storms will linger into Friday ahead of a secondary front. Temperatures will not rise much as colder air begins to flow in from the northwest and clouds keep solar heating at a minimum. Expect highs only in the mid 70's and lows falling back to the upper 40's Friday Night.

High pressure moves back in control Saturday morning keeping clear skies in the region with highs 73 to 77 on Saturday and 76 to 80 on Sunday with lows down in the mid 40's Saturday night.

High pressure moves offshore on Sunday Night, bringing a return of southerly flow into the region. Highs will manage the mid 80's, but not as warm as today. There is a slight chance of a shower on Labor Day, but otherwise dry weather will continue through the start of the next work week.

Medium range: CFS and GFS showing a significant plume of moiture reaching the region around September 11 to 12. GFS ensembles are forecasting the NAO and AO staying mainly neutral through the end of September, with the PNA finally dropping negative after a month near 1.5 SD. I think the drop will likely be more gradual than the GFS forecast, but I still expect finally a little relief from the heat out west as the ridge breaks down toward the middle of the month. By the end of September, the majority of nation will start to feel some autumn chill. The northeast will remain near average or slightly above normal, however because of a slowly rising NAO.

In the long range CFS model shows a brief excursion into below normal temperatures for September 25 to 26 and again for October 6 to 7. The latter may feature our first freeze and possible even a few snowflakes north of the MA/NH border. A strong high pressure forms in the middle of the country for the middle of October, bringing a return to warmth for the west and temperatures back to normal in the east. PNA breaks again around the 20th, with another big rainstorm possible in New England. AO also drops out with a big blast of cold for the heart of the country. And I'll leave with the first forecast of measurable snow in New England: CFS brings a significant cold front through on Halloween, with much cold air and a drop in the NAO for the start of November, then a storm off the Mid Atlantic moves north bringing even cold air down for the 3rd and 4th of November with the possibility of 3 to 5 inches of snow for portions of the region.