The configuration of SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean have not varied much, except for some shifting eastward. Nino1+2 continues to feature positive anomalies, however colder waters have emerged in portions of Nino3, and are pushing the warm tongue toward South America, now contained primarily east of 120W. Meanwhile, SSTAs are positive through the Indian Ocean, and Indonesia, and have warmed between 140E and the dateline and down to 150m depth in the last few days in resonse to the last MJO wave. Negative subsurface SST anomalies extend to a depth of 150m between the 160W and 80W, with positive anomalies further west. These will propagate toward the surface over the next month, cooling Nino3 and Nino1+2 anomalies and possibly finally reducing the gradient that has been implanted for the last 9 months. The latest bi-monthly Oceanic Nino Index came in at -.569 which is weak La Nina territory. I do not expect much increase in magnitude, but a consecutive La Nina winter is likely.

The MJO and GWO are starting to become more in sync with a greater connection between the tropics and extratropics. The GWO recently underwent a rapid cycle through phases 4 through 8 caused by rapid succession of mountain torque and frictional torque events, reemerging in phase 1 at the beginning of October and now is in phase two with the lowest atmosphere angular momentum since this past spring caused by intensifying easterlies between the equator and 30S showing up in the past two weeks. The atmosphere is in La Nina mode, no doubt about it. It appears that the winter of 2008-9 may have more similarities than differences compared to 2007-8.

The MJO signal has entered the <1 sigma area of phase space. Full scan satellite imagery shows increasing convection in the Atlantic in association with strengthening 200mb divergence. The MJO will continue to cycle quickly through the <1 sigma circle into phase 4 within the next week, and become more inline with the GWO, along with the increasing positive SST anomalies will likely support a strong MJO wave across Indonesia by October 16th. This will act to reinforce the -AAM, and La Nina.

I continue to work on several roll-forward analogs for the next 8 weeks. There is a good consensus for a PNA configuration and resultant east coast trough around late November. I am thinking cold and stormy with some early season snowfall possible around the 20th to 23rd.