I took a rather long hiatus from posting for a couple of reasons:

1) Everything is really going as planned. On September 15th in my preliminary outlook, I called for: "the first 2 to 3 weeks of November will be warm with likely no snowfall. Our best shot for early season snow will come in late November (23 - 26)." Then I made a second call on October 9th for an overall below normal regime in the east for November with the main focus starting between the 15th and the 18th. Other meteorologists started to catch on toward the end of October and into early November and it has been widely accepted for the past 10 days that a frigid airmass was on its way. Now it has come, which much more cold on the way. Today high temperatures hit the low 40's with windchills in the mid 30's. Tomorrow through at least the next week, high temperatures will range between 30 and 37 (10 to 15 degrees below normal), with lows in the teens. This is closer to late December standards. So as a recap, my forecasts have verified very well so far, and appears on track for the rest of the month. The main question now turns to snow, which brings me to my second point.

2) While the models have been unanimous in displaying a cold regime in the east, there has been little to no consistent forecasts for storms. The current pattern looks fairly dry. There will be an offshore low that will create some snow showers over the mid Atlantic region and Cape Cod tomorrow with accumulations possibly up to an inch. We may get a few flurries tomorrow and tomorrow night as cold air streaming over the Great Lakes creates a lake effect snow set up. A couple of short waves will swing around the large upper level low to our north, sending more reinforcing shots of cold air, and this may be accompanied by some flurries or snow showers.

The main focus right now is on Sunday into Monday (11/24). The GFS launched into showing a Miller B type storm senario in its 12z run yesterday. This was a complete turn around from its previous runs. The following 18z GFS run didnt complete a phase until too late, and then today's runs have so far shown just a very weak low shooting east off the M.A. coast. Still, the potential exists for some snow showers with just the northern stream storm system. But under perfect conditions, it could result in a decent snowfall. The day 7 forecast is extremely troublesome at the moment with very little model agreement. The Euro wants to shoot the low toward the Great Lakes. At this point, for a big snow storm, I would rather have the GFS where it is now though because of its infamous southeast bias.

At this point, I am anticipating a brief break in the cold between Thanksgiving and December 1st, followed by another storm potential around the 4th.