While we've had our share of storminess, overall New England has seen below normal precipitation year to date. The rest of the nation has stayed unusually dry so far for 2009, and in fact to the point of records. January was the 5th diest on record nationally, and February was the 8th driest on record nationally. Year to date, the nation is off to its driest start on record. New Jersey, Delaware and Virginia have set state records for the January-February period, while New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York have all seen their top 10 driest starts. Regionally, the northeast is off to its 3rd driest start on record.

January featured a strong jet stream diving south out of Canada, which resulted in the 15th coldest January on record for the northeast. This also resulted in large scale upper level convergence, forcing surface high pressure that controlled much of the nation.

In February, ridging in the west retrograded toward the Aleutians, supporting a -PNA which allowed for some storminess across the west and upper midwest. However, in the meantime, ridging over the center of the nation kept the central plains and east dry.

This tendency is likely to be repeated over the next couple of weeks. The ECMWF and GFS agree on above normal heights across the center of the nation in the medium term, keeping a large area from the midwest into the east high and dry. A trough will begin to impact the Pacific northwest in this time frame, and it will likely be the only feature on national radar.


Locally, the weekend has featured beautiful weather, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 50's. This will continue through Tuesday, before a weak system swings a front through the region Wednesday Night and Thursday, bringing some light showers with it.

Dry, inactive patterns like this do not break very easily, usually it takes one big storm to perturb the regular routine. Should this pattern continue through spring however, it could have notable ramifications on the summer ahead. Soil moisture has a strong association with summertime temperatures, and the current dryness could be a sign of a hot summer ahead.