
One look at the current radar will tell the whole story: Dry with very little precipitation to be found across the nation. Strong high pressure is currently in control of the eastern half of the nation. There are two storm systems of interest at the moment. The first is over northern Ontatio, and the second is developing in the eastern Pacific.
The first storm located over northern Ontario, has a cold front extending westward across southern Canada. It is producing some light precipitation over Ontario, south into Minnesota, however this will dry up as it shifts southeast toward New England this weekend, and the cold front crossing us on Sunday will feature only a few high level clouds.
While the storm may not play a huge role precipitation wise, it will develop overtime into a large upper level disturbance south of Newfoundland. This will create strong northerly flow into the region, which while keeping the region dry, will also pull down some notably cold temperatures for late March standards. Despite 850mb temperatures around -10C, which would normally support low to mid 30's at the surface, strong solar heating will still allow us to reach the 40's for highs. The upper low will slowly shift east through the middle of the week, but it will continue to have upstream effects of enhanced wave amplification.
The second storm system is consolidating along the west coast of North America. A strong piece of energy will roll into the southwest by Sunday Night, ejecting into the central plains on Monday, with an intense surface low tracking from Colorado to Nebraska. This storm will be a big weather maker across the midwest, with severe weather possible for portions of Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma Monday afternoon, and into Arkansas on Tuesday. To the northwest of the low, over the Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming, heavy precipitation is possible with the risk of flooding and some high elevation snows.

Low pressure will move to the northeast up into Canada, with a cold front cutting into the eastern states by Thursday and Friday. However it will only feature some light showery weather for the northeast with a few thunderstorms further south.
Upper level low pressure will intensify in south-central Canada on Thursday, pulling a strong jet streak over the northern Rockies, with another storm system rotation into the central plains. Once again, there is the potential for an area of severe thunderstorms, and tornadic development across Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Thursday, and considering the recent terrible forecast verification, medium and long term forecasts should be looked at cautiously. Nevertheless, it appears that the upper low could dive into the Great Lakes region next weekend, triggering surface low development further south. Ramifications include the potential for our string of sunny weekends to be ended.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 3/20/2009 11:18:00 AM