Not much change to the forecast through Thursday. Sunny with temperatures in the 40's most days. The one exception will be Monday. Model guidance has gotten a little more robust with cold air advection behind the front that passes through Sunday night. 850mb temperatures could fall down to around -15C on Monday which supports highs stuck in the 30's.

By the end of the week, GFS and ECM have both slowed the progression of storms coming east. Both build high pressure along the coast by Thursday, keeping it in control through Friday. This will pump warmer air into the region, helping high temperatures into the 50's. At this point it looks like the first front will wash out over us, with any precipitation diminishing before it reaches New England. The main story then turns to the next storm which will be developing in the central states on Thursday. Upper level low pressure will progress into the northern plains by Saturday with intense surface low pressure lifting northward near Chicago. This will be a multi faceted storm, with the potential for severe weather across the southeast and heavy precipitation across the northern plains, possibly including a decent snow event for some.

This will be in effect, a pattern changing storm. An omega block has been locked in over the center of the nation, which is what has been keeping the majority of the country dry. The first system that will traverse the nation Monday through Thursday will help shift the block east, and then the second storm that will move into the Ohio Valley next weekend, will push it out of the nation. Pattern changes are often rushed by the models, so the timing for next weekend will be difficult to pin down.

By the following week (Tuesday, March 31), trough axis should be aligned across the central plains, with blocking over the northwest Atlantic. Severe weather target area may shift toward the Ohio Valley.

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I plan on releasing a preliminary seasonal outlook for Summer 2009 tomorrow.