You might say that the weather is more autumn-like at this point. With the frontal passage yesterday, winds have picked up out of the west / northwest and have transported drier and cooler air into the region. Skies this Sunday morning are a perfect blue, indicative of dry air. The only difference between now and autumn is that solar heating is much stronger, so regardless of cold air advection, highs will still rebound into the upper 70's.

Monday will be similar to today through at least the afternoon. By evening, clouds will be on the increase with a chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with the next incoming shortwave. Cold pool aloft with decent surface instability will allow showers and thunderstorms to continue on Tuesday. High temperatures will be kept down in the mid 70's due to clouds. Cold air aloft sticks around Wednesday, so an afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies, highs in the mid 70's.

On Thursday, high pressure slides to our east, with ridging nosing in from the center of the nation. We should see at least partial clearing, allowing highs to reach the upper 70's. Friday, ridging continues to slide east, however model guidance has become less robust with any "heat". Highs still should reach around seasonal normals, around 80 to low 80's.

There is some disagreement between the timing of the next frontal passage. The GFS has quickened, to pulling it through the region on Friday. The ECM, UKMET and GGEM all hold it off until Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with the frontal passage.

By next week, southeast ridging will develop, however the perpetual trough over the northeast will not be restrained, and we will continue to see rounds of unsettled weather and below normal temperatures.