
Frontal boundary crossing the region tonight will usher in drier air aloft allowing for sunny skies tomorrow. This will help highs into the low 80's. The frontal boundary will stall to our east through the evening, which may provide a focus for isolated showers over eastern MA/CT.
The next system will be swinging into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. We'll see winds backing to the southwest and a return of a more unstable airmass. A weak midlevel shortwave will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. Warmer air will be advecting into the region through the afternoon, boosting highs into the upper 80's.
The associated cold front will be moving into New England Tuesday night. Flow becomes parallel to the front into Wednesday resulting in it moving very slowly through the region. With moderate instability parameters scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front through Wednesday. Highs should reach the low 80's despite increased cloud cover and cooler air advecting in later in the day.
As the front slides south of New England on Thursday, cooler and much drier air will move in with high pressure over the Great Lakes. We'll still be under the influence of an advancing shortwave which will prevent complete clearing, but we'll at least remain dry. Despite sunshine, highs will struggle into mid 70's, against northwest flow.
Friday, dry air continues to take command and with the shortwave trough departing, we should see full clearing. However, once again highs struggle into the 70's and overnight lows will tumble into the low 50's. Indeed it will feel like the beginning of autumn (not that we're not used to that this summer).
Low pressure will slide south of the region on Saturday along a baroclinic zone where the previous frontal boundary faded. This will spread some clouds into the area, but areas north of I90 should remain dry. South of I90, there will be a chance for showers. Highs again on the cool side.
On Sunday, a new chapter begins. Ridging over the southern plains will be pushing east. Remember the mentioned baroclinic zone? That's where there is a tight temperature gradient present. The developing ridging will be pushing that gradient northward. Surface high pressure slides to our east and southwest flow will blast the region with warmth. There are signs that this could in fact open the doors to heat we havent seen yet this summer. However, a number of factors also oppose that idea. First, the ground is very very moist in the northeast. In the summer months, this has a significant bearing on the potential of a heat wave. Second, an anomalous low in Canada will be spitting shortwaves southeast toward New England which will constantly suppress the core of the heat to the south. So overall it is more likely that New England sees a sharp but quick warm up early next week.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 8/02/2009 07:42:00 PM