A tight thermal ribbon to our southeast with warm air advection aloft is contributing to overcast skies and scattered showers over portions of the northeast this morning. Most shower activity is dissapating at this time, and most of the afternoon will likely be dry. Cloudiness will prevent high temperatures from getting out of the 70's. Overnight, The surface warm front boundary approaches with strong warm air advection and moisture advection. Lows should not drop much further than the mid 60's. We could see a round of thunderstorms move from the WNW toward the region with gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible.

On Monday, the ridge axis will slide to the east coast sending 850mb temperatures to around 18 to 20C supporting highs in the upper 80's and 90's across the northeast. In addition, dew points will reach the low 70's yielding heat indeces near 100 in some areas.

The second concern Monday is the potential for severe thunderstorm activity later in the evening. We should remain capped most of the day, which will allow partly to mostly sunny skies. By the late afternoon however, the cap may break giving way to rapidly growing thunderheads. Current severe parameter projections give support to >1" hail and >70mph gust potential. Certainly something to keep an eye on for the next 36 hours. Monday night, a true uncomfortable summer night with lows in the upper 60's to around 70 and saturated low levels.

The last shortwave arrives Tuesday, with one last day of warm and muggy weather. Expect highs to reach the mid 80's. Cold front approaches in the afternoon trigging another round of thunderstorms through the evening hours.

Wednesday through Friday look dry at this time with high pressure moving in from the west. Temperatures will be around seasonal normals. Beyond this point, the forecast becomes more uncertain. There are some signs pointing toward another period of above normal temperatures. Both the GFS and ECM push ridging into the Ohio Valley, but its ability to make it further east is the question.