First up is tonight: Much colder even than last night. However, no winds to contend with. Wind chills factors by light 5mph breeze could near -10 to -15 but only because tonights air temperatures are expected to plummet. The current temperature readings tell it all. Yesterday at 8pm we were at 7F at the airport, today same time we are at 1F. At my house it's already below zero in fact; I recorded -2.4F an hour ago, now down to -2.6. The NWS is going all out with tonight's forecast low with -7F. The MOS data has been unreliable as of late, so I won't get into that. Based on this morning's drop and the temperatures we reached today, along with the RUC and NAM forecasts, the NWS's is looking good. Will stick with -7F in lower Keene, higher elevations however may see -10 for the first time this season!

Tomorrow, temperatures will rebound ahead of an approaching clipper system currently located just north and west of the Great Lakes region. Highs will reach into the 20's and may reach above freezing south of the MA tnpk. Clouds and chance of snow showers will move in tomorrow afternoon. The storm will not have any significant amounts of moisture associated with it, so no accumulation is expected in New England. Lake effect snows could visit New York tomorrow evening behind the storm, and may bring a second period of snow showers / flurries Saturday night to western New England. A much warmer night in store Saturday with temperatures stopping in the mid teens. The dreaded southeast ridge may try to make a comeback on Sunday as the AO heads toward positive territory and the NAO shoots up to near neutral. The Euro had jumped on this idea last night showing the ridge prevailing into next week. This was a little bit of a shock to the meteoroligical community as we had been watching the GFS leading the pack with record cold. While the Euro usually has authority over the other long range models (in that it keeps them in check when they go extreme with their forecasts), current thinking is that the Euro is too warm and with the latest ensembles showing only a brief stay in postive / neutral stage for the AO and NAO, their isn't much of any change to my thinking on significant cold into February.

Sunday, while warm and sunny here, will not be such in the M/A region where the Saturday storm system will redevelop over the open waters. There is potential for a light to moderate wintry mix event up into Long Island the south coast, but the track will probably be too far east for anything substantial to reach Keene. The NWS is going with 30% POPs Sunday Night and 40% on Monday, and that seems about right. Again, nothing substantial will be instore here: sorry, but no delay potential.
For the record, the GFS has been consistent on developing this low off the coast, and attention had earlier been minimal due to the projected track. Would be nice to think the western and stronger trend will incorporate into the Thursday / Friday storm next week... but let's not get ahead of ourselves...

...continuing on...

Enhanced northwestly flow behind the departing storm should knock down any SE ridge build up. Again, the 12z Euro doesnt buy it, but the other model guidence has yet to change from their eastern trough. AO shifts back to neutral for the approaching week. There is a consensus on a slight drop off with the NAO through Tuesday and Wednesday, but a rather big spread on the forecasts afterwards. In short though, we should have neutral or negative readings on both indices in time for Thursday.
Cold high pressure over the region will keep the weather dry through Thursday, with the exception of some flurries on Tuesday in association with dying lake effect snow bands. Temperatures will back off from Sunday's warmth, into the upper teens to near 20 and lows around zero. Wednesday, high pressure moves east of the region, allowing another warm spell through Thursday with highs reaching up into the mid 20's.
The forecast gets complicated (and fun) for Thursday Night into Friday. The GFS has been consistent in showing a coastal low developing and bombing in the Gulf of Mexico, and moving northward to New England. The track forecast has not been exactly straight forward with the GFS runs. Earlier this morning, I95 folks were complaining about the forecast for an inland tracking low (which would be best for us in Keene!). The latest run (18z) tracks the low over the benchmark, delivering the heaviest snowfall just outside of I95 and SE of us. These are details that will have to be worked out, but this is our next model-forecasted-mega-storm to watch.

Quite possibly the larger weather story of the next few weeks will get going behind this storm system. Ensemble forecasts have a consensus for <-2SD by the 4th of February, and a few forecasts take it all the way to -4SD, an interesting forecast considering the +4 and higher reading recorded earlier this month. The NAO may not cooperate as nicely, with a rather large spread after February first. A neutral NAO will reduce the chance for any significant storms through the first week of February, but will still allow for the extreme cold supported by the AO. The GFS, although long term, continues to show -20C to -30C 850mb temps through February 5th. It also is hanging onto a negative NAO through the period and brings a couple other coastal events to the region.