000
FXUS61 KBOX 171104 AAA
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED LT..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
605 AM EST WED JAN 17 2007
...FINALLY BONAFIDE WINTER AND IT WILL KEEP COMING WITH A COLDER
THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ICE AND/OR WIND...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR
THIS WINTER...AND THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY IT.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC SOLUTION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO SAW NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FROM THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION
VERY MUCH. DID INCREASE THE WINDS SPEEDS SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE OCEAN WHERE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TREMENDOUS MIXING OVER THE
ABNORMALLY WARM WATER.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE
OVERHEAD...LOWERING THE HEIGHT OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED VERY REASONABLE FOR
TEMPERATURES...SO WENT WITH IT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...GGEM 10 DAY NORMALIZED MEAN 850 TT...THE ECMWF CONTD
BLOCK DVLMT FROM SCANDINAVIA TO ICELAND FORCES THE NAO TO AN
APPARENT PLUNGE WHICH IF REALIZED AS MODELED ON THE 00Z/17 GFS ENS
WOULD BE SETTING US UP FOR A BIG COASTAL STORM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY THIS PATTERN ALLOWS COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR TO
OCCASIONALLY INTRUDE INTO OUR AREA /EPO IS NEG/ AND NOT RUN OFF INTO
THE N ATLC LIKE IT DID IN DEC/EARLY JAN.
THE CONTG EL NINO HAS A SEEMINGLY UNENDING SERIES OF STRONG SW'S
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NR 40N THAT EVENTUALLY REFORM IN THE SRN USA
WITH POTENTIAL TO CONNECT NEWD WITH THE STRONG FRONTS THAT CROSS OUR
AREA.
THE ABV SCENARIO...PROVIDED THE BLOCKING MODELED HOLDS CLOSE TO
PREDICTED THRU DAY 10... SUGGESTS THAT LAST WEEKENDS ICE STORM...
AND TODAYS ZERO TO 15 BELOW WIND CHILL THAT INVADED SNE THIS MORNING
ARE JUST THE BEGINNING OF A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX EPISODES
THAT ARE LONG LONG OVERDUE IN THE EL NINO PATTERN THAT FOR SO LONG
HAD WINTER PTYPE CONVERTED TO RAIN BY ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
TODAYS TEMPS...AT BOS ORH MHT ACK COLDEST DAY SINCE FEB 27 2006!
BDL COLDEST SINCE FEB 28.
HAZARDS...SPS WBIS SHORTLY FOR THE BRIEF SIGNIFICANT FRI MORNING
RUSH HR SNOW EVENT AND SUBSEQUENT STRONG AND POTENTIALLY POCKETS OF
DAMAGING WIND FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE BY THE WAY PRODUCES THE
GREENLAND POSITIVE ANOMALY THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR TWO EVENTS NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY...THE 8-16 HR EVENT FOR THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WILL PRODUCE
BTWN .2 AND .8 W.E. PCPN FOR SNE..HEAVIEST ALONG AND E OF THE I95
CORRIDOR IN THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WHERE A SLY 850 JET OF 50+
KTS OPERATES.
THE MON THE 22ND EVENT IS A .05 TO .50 EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW ACC. ALSO HIGH TIDES NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE WE HAVE A A
LATE EVENING 11 FT ASTRO TIDE.
THEN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IF WE CONT THE PLUNGE IN THE NAO WHICH I
EXPECT WILL REACH AT LEAST TWO SD OF CHANGE...SHOULD PROVIDE LOTS
OF INTERESTED WX WATCHERS. ALREADY THE EC HAS QUITE A STORM MODELED
FOR NEXT WED/THU...JUST A BIT OFF THE COAST BUT NOT VERY FAR. THE
GFS 00Z/17 ENS CONT TO SHOW A BIG TROF FOR A WEEK OUT MOVING EWD THE
MISS VALLEY. THINK THIS PATTERN WITHIN THE EL NINO WILL BEAR EVEN
MORE PATIENT WATCHING AS THE MODELS DO THEIR FLIPS.
THE DAILIES...
THU-FRI...QUICKLY IC...RGEM AND GGEM PTYPES SUPPORT THE INTERNAL WWD
DESK OUTLOOK AS WELL AS OUR LOCAL OFFICE TOOLS FOR A 1-5" SNOW EVENT
CURRENT MAX AXIS IS I84 FM JUST E OF THE CT RVR VALLEY THRU THE ORH
HILLS INTO THE MONADNOCKS. I95 SEWD SHOULD HAVE LITRTLE OR NO ACC
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ESSEX CTY MASS.
SAT...OUR MXG TOOLS ARE FCSTG WDSPRD G38-45 KTS...THIS COULD BE A
WIND DAMAGE DAY. THIS COULD ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES WITH INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR BUT ATTM WE WERE IN CATCH UP MODE REDEVELOPING THE DATA
BASE.
SUN...MORNING BLUSTERY CHILL THEN EASING AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH.
MON...PROXIMITY SEEMS A LITTLE DISTANT BUT WE UPPED POPS FOR A
CURRENTLY EXPECTED SML WINTER WX EVENT. HOWEVER..AM NOT LOCKED ONTO
SMALL. FOR NOW CONSERVATIVE.
TUE A PROBABLE ANTICIPATORY BREAK WITH HIGH PRES.
WED...SOMETHING SUBSTANTIAL. DETAILS TO BE DEVELOPED OVER THE WKND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW WE JUST HAVE 30 POP OUTLOOKED. LOTS
OF MODEL PATTERN SUPPORT THIS FAR INTO THE FUTURE AND DESCRIBED IN
THE SYNOPSIS ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z-06Z/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF CEILINGS 025-030 FROM KPVC-KHYA-KACK EARLY TODAY DUE TO
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH DURING
THE DAY WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BECOME LESS SO THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY DECOUPLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
POSTED A GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR
THIS SEASON...COMBINED WITH THE ABNORMALLY WARM OCEAN WATER...IS
LEADING TO TREMENDOUS MIXING. NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10 AM...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SLY GALE POSSIBLE MASS CW THEN DEVELOPING STRONG AND
PROLONGED WLY TO NW GALE LATE FRI-THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. 45 KT
ALREADY IN THE FCST. MULTI MODEL SUPPORT AS COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN
INVADES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SEE LT DISC ON POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...BELK
MARINE...DRAG/BELK
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 1/17/2007 06:23:00 AM
