UPDATE (1700): Record warmth is still in the forecast for Saturday. In fact, many weather agencies have increased the forecast high to near 60! We have a decent shot at the record high of 58 (set in 1929).

In the short term, we have the warmth and one storm to talk about (Friday 5th - Saturday)
In the mid term, we have some cooling and one storm to talk about (Sunday 7th - Monday)
In the long term (beyond 10 days), there is a pattern change on the horizon, that is getting more consent from various forecasters. The models are not in agreement on the long term, so any speculation is based on the trends of the MJO, PNA, AO, and NAO.

Short term:
Warmth will be the rule through Saturday. Lows tonight will fall into the low 30's under partly cloudy skies. A storm system currently located on the Gulf Coast will carry a load of moisture into the region on Friday. Showers will overspread the region Friday and could be heavy at times into Friday Night. Flooding is not expected at this time, however bursts of heavier showers could cause ponding on some poor-drainage roads. Rain will taper off through Saturday with total accumulations of an inch to 1.5 inches possible. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday than the 51 recorded today but still will reach the upper 40s to near 50 and a solid 15 degrees above average. Friday Night is the biggest story (next to Saturday) as temperatures will not move much. The NWS forecast of 45 (the average low for May 28th, and 33 degrees above the January 5th average of 12) seems almost unreal. My forecast is a slightly lower simply in account of climatology (at 41). Saturday is not going to be much closer to reality either, with the current zone forecast high of 59 and the point forecast high of 58. The one restriction on temperatures will be cloud cover as rain will remain in the area through the afternoon. Without any cloud cover at all (no chance) highs could reach up around 70, however this is obviously NOT the case, and temperatures will be forced down around the upper 50's to 60. If the storm system timing is shifted back a bit, we may struggle to reach the mid 50's with clouds and rain through the day. Saturday Night will not be as impressive as Friday Night however still will not reach the average HIGH. Sunday, clearing skies, however northwest winds will keep temperatures to the mid 40's.

.CLIMATE...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
TERRITORY. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY LOOK ESPECIALLY PRONE TO BREAK
RECORDS IN A FEW SPOTS. RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPS ARE ALSO AT
RISK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HERE ARE THE NUMBERS FOR OUR FOUR MAIN
CLIMATE SITES.

JAN 5
BOSTON       MAX 62/1993 WARMEST MIN 45/1950 
PROVIDENCE   MAX 61/1950 WARMEST MIN 46/1950 
HARTFORD/BDL MAX 63/1993 WARMEST MIN 44/1950 
WORCESTER    MAX 58/1950 WARMEST MIN 41/1950

JAN 6
BOSTON       MAX 62/1913 WARMEST MIN 42/1946
PROVIDENCE   MAX 61/1913 WARMEST MIN 45/1946
HARTFORD/BDL MAX 58/1929 WARMEST MIN 41/1998
WORCESTER    MAX 57/1929 WARMEST MIN 41/1998

Mid Term:
Sunday Night, another storm system will move into New England from the southwest, spreading precipitation into the area by Monday morning. With temperatures below freezing for the first time since last night, we have a shot at some snow and ice mixing in. Of course the big question is how low temperatures will be, and how long they can stay there. Currently is appears temperatures will be too warm for any icy precipitation at all south of the MA/NH border and even into southern NH. Lower Keene (500ft) has a shot at some freezing rain and snow before changing to plain rain around 9am. The higher elevations (above 1000ft) could see snow and ice to noon, a three hour period of rain, then a change to snow Monday afternoon and night. The prospect of snow accumulation (which does exist) will be covered in the winter weather outlook page. This storm moves off on Tuesday (maybe some flurries through Tuesday morning), otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies will return with much colder temperatures. Through Thursday, highs will range in the low to mid 30's and lows in the teens. We may still be looking at above average highs (by a few degrees) through next weekend.

Long term:
While mucher cooler temperatures (by 20 to 30 degrees) will control the northeast through mid January, these temperatures will still be at or above average. Besides the 29th and 30th of December, which dropped below average by 6 and 3 degrees (respectively), everyday since the 9th has seen above average temperatures. Since November first, only 12 days have had below average highs while 51 days have been above average. We should be coming up to a little break in the warmth by late January into early February. The MJO (currently in phase 5) will move into phase 7 by January 20th. This will weaken the Pacific Jet (the source of the extreme warmth) and allow for a transition to a +PNA/-NAO. If the AO cooperates, then we could have some below average temperatures through early February before the Pacific Jet gets cranking again. Snow events are possible during this period (1/20 - 1/30) but nothing specific is clear at this time.

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We are looking at record warmth ahead for much of southern New England. If you thought that November 06 was bad, if you thought that December 06 was bad, or if you thought that January 06 was bad, well at least the start of January of 2007 is going to much worse. We are talking about highs that reached 48 yesterday, reaching the low 50's today and tomorrow, and the UPPER 50's on Saturday. Today, my forecast high of 52 is 20 degrees above average. On Saturday, we could reach 25 to 30 degrees above average. Even more impressive is a forecast low for Friday Night in the 40's! We could have another night above the average HIGH! If you haven't heard, in Washington D.C. two days ago, cherry trees which usually blossom in mid march, had some flowers popping up. Another FYI: while Dec was the warmest to the fifth warmest across much of the region, the NOV-DEC two month period was the warmest of its kind as well.

A storm will spread rain across the northeast tomorrow into Saturday. Flooding concerns are minimal at this time, however 1 to 2 inches of rainfall could cause a few problems on poor-drainage roads.

Skies will clear for Sunday, and much cooler temperatures in the 40's (10 degrees above average) will move in. Sunday Night, another storm will bring a chance of precipitation through Monday. This storm will also encourage the downward trend of temperatures, bringing highs into the mid 30's on Monday and possibly closer to average by mid week. With temperatures closer to the freezing point, precipitation type will become an issue again. Sunday Night through Monday Night will offer a mix of rain and snow. No snow accumulation is expected at this time.

Signs of a pattern change, while still not getting full consent, is becoming somewhat clearer for mid to late January. The question is, how significant will the change be? Some are saying that the record cold in Siberia right now could move in, while others are saying simply an average to slightly below average regime into February. In any case, our chances of snow (in case you're wondering) are coming up. This winter is not over yet.