SHORT TERM UPDATE (1/15 2100):
Winter weather advisory will be allowed to expire at 11pm this evening. Temperatures are slowly rising in the area, and below 1000ft, are above freezing. At 1000ft and higher, temperatures are still hovering around 31, which will some ice accretion to continue as long as there is precipitation.

Ignoring any minimal additional accumulation tonight, the storm total for ice was .3" which was in my forecast range. However, warm air ruined another storm, and provided a sharp cutoff for snow/ice/rain. You'll see tomorrow snow totals in central NH over 6 inches. Here in Keene, what many were banking on was back end snows as temperatures fell tonight. As it turns out, the low is not quite so strong, and while scattered snow showers may cross the area tonight, nowhere near the 3 to 5 inches I forecasted or the 3 - 7 inches the NWS forecasted is going to happen with this storm. Ice accumulation has caused numerous power outages, including at my house. Many branches, ranging from 1 to 12 inches in diameter have fallen. Lots of ice, no snow. These are the final remarks for another disapointing storm.

Last snowday probability update: 5% chance of a cancellation tomorrow, 30% chance of a delay. A delay is still not out of the question given temperatures in the low 20s along with icy roads tomorrow morning.

No update for long term. See previous discussions below:

---

UPDATE (1/15 0800):

Winter weather advisory in effect for today. upper level warmth is making me tweak my snowfall forecast down to 2 to 4 inches. Mainly ice today. The majority of any snowfall will occur this evening through tonight.

Long term:
Rob Guarino posted around midnight last night. First thing to talk about is the possible storm on the 18th - 20th time period. He doesn't elaborate on this event, but does mention the possibility. The NWS is still going with snow showers with the clipper system but still not going with any phasing. Guarino still supports a storm on the 23rd to 24th. The GFS has moved this storm westward by nearly 900 miles. The 06z brings the low up the spine of the Appalachians. This senario would present more annoying precipitation type issues. I am longing for a storm that we know will be snow! Well, we cant get everything in life I suppose.

A very deep trough will move in behind the 23rd event. Southern stream storm on the 27th is currently projected heading out to sea. If a blocking high can form, then we are made for the 27-29 period.

Taking a look at teleconnections, the AO is dropping off slowly from its record position. The strength of the +AO should drop off quickly tomorrow behind this storm. The current ensemble forecast spreads out significantly just at 3 days. Looking at the verification, it is following the 7 day mean fairly closely, so will go with the 7 day forecast. This take the AO to near +2. Long range 14 day forecast, which is 3 units off the mean, and nearly 7 off the minimum forecast, takes the AO to a neutral position entering February.


The ensemble forecast for the NAO takes it negative for the first time since mid December, but holds it neutral through the next two weeks. The consensus on the NAO is good at this time.


The PNA is forecasted to rise into the positives through the next two weeks. If the +PNA ridge could have held with the current storm, then we would be looking at record temperatures through next week, and snow falling right now, however the ridge broke down with the storm. The PNA will stay in near neutral as well through the period. Ensemble consensus is good.


The NAO staying in neutral will prevent any blocking to develop over the next 8 or 9 days. This is expressed well by the GFS forecast. Once low pressure moves offshore this weekend, another shot of cold air will move into the region. Low pressure moving northward will set up a weak -NAO which will allow some blocking to develop by day 10. The GFS outlook is actually much stronger than I foresee, however, it is also too far east for a significant impact. This has been the problem through the 06-07 winter so far and it appears there will not be any changes. The block still will help along the 23rd-24th event, so we may have to watch for a shift westward, in that the effect could be something even stronger than currently expected.

My outlook is for a cold start to February but another warm up to end near November 06 departures.

---

UPDATE (1/14 1800):

Winter weather advisory in effect for Monday. My final snowfall forecast is 3-5 inches. Details in the winter weather outlook page.

Long term:
The first arctic outbreak of the season will arrive Tuesday night. The forecast is much colder than previously thought, keeping highs to around 10 and lows below zero for the first time this season. in addition, wind chills overnight Tuesday and overnight Wednesday could fall to near -20. Any colder and we might be talking about wind chill advisories for these periods.

The AO is going to take a nose dive now, which will be the reason for the allowance of frigid air reaching New England. Also, this will guarentee at least a week of frigid temperatures ahead of us.

Temperatures warm up back to near 30 for highs late in the week. Then a clipper system will rush through the region bring back highs around 20 and lows in the single numbers. The GFS has been hinting at secondary development south of New England for a while now, however it appears that the clipper will be moving too fast to allow for any phasing to occur. Nevertheless, the GFS recent runs have indicated a significant snow event (6+" across the region) for the 19th and 20th: one of the dates I had mentioned earlier. So this may have to be watched.

Details coming later on the possibilities for the 23rd and 27th.

Rob Guarino made a post earlier this morning to lead up to an important update he said would be posted later today. I'll post details on it when it comes.

---

I will cover the short term quickly, however will focus more on the development of a very interesting end to January.

On the radar screen, steady precipitation is moving northward into the region. Rain, possibly mixed with some sleet or snow, will move into Cheshire County by 10am. The precipitation will be light, however cannot rule out some icy road conditions through this morning. No snow or sleet accumulation is expected.

This storm pulls out tonight, bringing a cooler air mass. This sets the stage for the first potentially significant winter storm of the year. All details are being covered in the winter weather outlook page at this time. Please refer to the winter weather outlook page for the latest observations, alerts, forecasts, as well as snowday probabilities.

The first arctic air mass of the season will stream in behind this storm. Tuesdsy through next weekend will feature highs 15 to 25 and lows -5 to 10 above... yes we may drop below zero even.

While we may have to talk about a clipper system event between sometime within the next 7 to 9 days, the main event coming up is a storm progged for the 23rd. I have been forecasting this event for quite some time and my confidence is unchanged in that we have the potential for a major east coast storm during this period. Obviously the details need to be worked out, such as the resulting track of the storm. In fact, the GFS, which first sparked my interest in the 23rd, has the storm a solid 300 miles east of the region. Now the Euro is stepping to the plate and showing an I-95 blockbuster for the 22nd. I will post updates on this storm possibility through next week.

Lastly, there are indications of a storm right behind it. With a weak El Nino, we are going to be talking about a strong southern jet stream. This will help the development of strong storms in the Gulf and southern states. Right now, the storm after the 23rd is set for around the 27th. This one has indications of being the largest of the three so far on the calender. The possibility exists for a negative to neutral NAO, +PNA for sure, and negative to neutral AO; All in place for a storm moving up the coast. Blogging meteorologist, Rob Guarino, recently wrote that we could see a 1996 type senario for this period, with the possibility of an all out blizzard in southern New England.

In summary, winter isn't over. It started late, but will be making up for lost time in a big way over the next three weeks.

STAY TUNED!