UPDATE (1600): High wind warning has been cancelled and in place of it is a wind advisory:

Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

MAZ002>012-014>016-022-026-NHZ011-012-015-210300-
/O.CAN.KBOX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070121T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070121T0300Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-BARNSTABLE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...
MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...CHATHAM...
FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...
NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
307 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 50 MPH
ARE LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON
NANTUCKET...WHERE STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY
ON BRIDGES AND EXPOSED HIGH TERRAIN. LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW SOUTH OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH.  WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

So far the highest recorded sustained wind speed in Keene has been 20mph, and the highest recorded gust has been 32mph. Even though the wind forecast has decreased, the temperature forecast has also dropped (NWS saying zero). So wind chills will be nasty through tonight as long as the wind keeps howling.

On Mt Washington, the highest recorded gust so far has been 110mph.

---

Before I launch into the outlook, we got some snow last night! At 1000ft in Keene, I measured 0.4 inches of snow. The ground is a bit whiter and the trees are beautiful. The seasonal snow total so far for 2006-2007 is still a measly 1.7" but for now, it's still a nice sight:




A high wind warning has been issued for Cheshire County, NH as well as the surrounding area. Winds this morning could reach advisory level (gusts up to 40mph). The real story though will be later this evening, when winds could reach sustained levels of 30 to 35mph and gust up to 60mph! There is considerable potential for power outages tonight as ice still clings to branches across mainly parts of the Monadnock region.

One place that the wind speed will be very interesting to watch is, where else, Mt Washington. The general set up of the the air masses puts Mt Washington at a good chance of breaking 100kts (115mph) this evening and tonight. Already, winds are gusting over 90mph and the wind chill factor has dropped under -50!

Cold weather will also grip the area tonight, with temperatures falling to near zero with winds still howling around 30 to 40mph tomorrow morning. This could create wind chills of around -15 for a time.

A southern stream system will move out of the southwest into the southern plains states today and into the southeast by tomorrow night. This storm will deliver "first flakes" and maybe more, to parts of the Carolinas on up into Virginia. The storm will pass well to our south on Monday, but an arctic flow combined with the storms southerly flow could create enough lift for some snow showers on Monday.

Tuesday, flurrie / snow showers will taper off to partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday through Friday, The 00Z GFS continues to slam New England with a major coastal storm. The 06Z run did not show completed phasing (and therefore only snow showers generated by the northern stream storm). UKMET is still on the bandwagon. The Euro has backed off, but still indicating a potential storm.

Possibly more importantly, the NWS in Taunton has backed off the storm, saying that while the GFS unloads on the region, there is not enough confidence. This is a turn from what they were saying yesterday, but it is still 5 days out so we have lots of time (for better or for worse).