Most 12z models are in now and every one of them has shifted west. I'll wait until the 18z surface maps come out, but I think that this is not a jog, but a trend, and will likely mean considerably less snowfall for SNE. I'll make a fourth forecast later this afternoon (probably right after the 18z models - 5ish), and then a final forecast around 9pm.

Post script:

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING CHESHIRE COUNTY.