Sunny skies will continue into tomorrow, with a large ridge of high pressure locked over the region. Moisture will be absent through the entire column, so clear blue skies will likely not be marred whatsoever. 850mb temperatures will still be on the cool side, around -2C, but with bright sun, will support highs around 50.

High pressure will maintain clear skies and light winds into Wednesday Night. Some mid to high level clouds may begin to overspread western New England as the next front approaches. Thursday still will dawn mostly sunny. The cold front will wash out over western New York, however secondary low pressure deepening in the Ohio Valley will up through Pennsylvania and New York by the evening hours, and increasing warm advection will spread showers over the region after 3pm. For anyone keeping track, that will be our first measurable precipitation since March 11 (over two weeks prior). Low pressure and associated cold front will pass overhead Thursday night, bringing the bulk of precipitation around midnight. Model guidance is advertising PWATs increasing to around an inch with total totals reaching the low 40's. This doesnt support thunder, but does suggest the potential for some moderate to heavy showers in association with the frontal passage. Model consensus is for around .3" to .5" total rainfall through Friday morning.

As the front moves offshore, high pressure builds back in, with drier air, bringing clearing skies. Ridging will intensify through the day as a storm deepens in the midwest, pushing temperatures a bit further, into the low to mid 50's. Skies will remain mostly clear Friday night, with radiational cooling allowing lows to drop to the upper 20's to near 30.

An intense storm system will move northeast out of Arkansas, approaching the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. High pressure sliding offshore will hold back precipitation through the day, but increasing warm air advection will advance clouds into the region by the afternoon and evening. There are some timing issues between models with respect to the onset of precipitation as the warm front lifts northward. Warm advection showers should overspread SNE overnight. A decent slug of moisture should work in from the south after daybreak Sunday as a triple point low develops in the Mid Atlantic region and moves north. There is a decent chance for some heavy downpours, and by Sunday evening total rainfall will be on the order of .5" to 1.0".

Cyclonic flow remains over the area on Monday, and the ECM and GFS both hold onto a moist column, so scattered showers may continue through at least the morning hours. Cold air advection and cloudiness will hold temperatures in the 40's on Monday.

The forecast becomes more uncertain for the rest of next week. The ECM continues to be robust with another system on the doorstep by Tuesday night. The GFS holds the main energy back west, with weak short waves ejecting eastward. Regardless, there will be a chance of showers middle to end of next week. Temperatures are more difficult to determine as they're more susceptible to the amplitude of the storm. Considering a general tendency for below normal heights and cloudiness, have kept highs on the cooler side.