Today will feature a bit more cloudiness than the past few days, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Current radar shows scattered showers / snow showers across NY, VT, and NH, and some of these may clip us this afternoon. However the boundary layer is dry enough that it will be difficult for any precipitation to reach the ground. So overall, skies will be partly cloudy today. Winds will be on the increase tonight, advecting a much colder airmass southward. Gusts could reach 30mph later tonight and on Monday, and with temperatures dropping into the teens tomorrow morning, windchills could reach the dingle digits.

Monday will be a return to winter for the region. Model guidance continues to decrease consensus on 850mb temperatures, now between -15C and -20C across SNE. Normally this would translate high temperatures only reaching the teens to near 20F, however lapse rates around 9C/km should support highs around 30 (still temperatures more common in January).

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature sunny skies and increasing temperatures as the upper level low shifts east and high pressure builds to our south. Short wave energy will move through southern Ontario on Thursday, swinging a cold front toward the region. It will have a tough time busting through the high and dry airmass of the east, which will slow it down and weaken it. Some models prefer even stalling it west of New England. We should see increasing clouds Thursday afternoon and night, and there may be a few scattered showers in association with the boundary.

Next storm system will be deepening in the midwest Thursday through Friday. There remains good support for an upper low trough cutting off, with strong surface low pressure tracking toward the Great Lakes. This has the potential to be a highly dynamical system with severe weather ramifications across the eastern two thirds of the nation.