High pressure will remain in control of the region through tomorrow. Sunny skies should quickly burn off patchy morning fog, and we'll recover from morning lows in the 50's to highs reaching the upper 80's. Diurnal cumulus will likely develop through the afternoon. Upper level jet remains well to our north so we should stay dry.

The next storm system will be approaching overnight with surface low pressure located up in northern Quebec and a cold front hanging down across the Great Lakes. Model guidance indicates that instability parameters will remain favorable overnight and with increasing forcing there is a slight chance for a nocturnal thunderstorm complex to cut through western New England. On Wednesday, the cold front will be slowing up with flow becoming parallel to the boundary. As daytime heating contributes to instability, we may see a second round of storms in the early afternoon. The main potential for any severe weather will be to our east though with more favorable dynamics.

Once the front pulls through, a tight temperature gradient sinks to our south. Much cooler and drier air will arrive on Thursday. Expect mostly sunny skies through the early afternoon, however temperatures will struggle into the upper 70's. A shortwave will be swinging north of the region during the evening and overnight. This will likely add some cloudiness and a slight risk for a shower.

More of the same on Friday. Upper low to our north will be rotating eastward with surface high pressure sliding into the eastern Great Lakes. Expect sunny skies but highs only reaching the mid 70's. Overnight lows will tumble into the low 50's.

Some questions arise on Saturday as there is disagreement in model guidance on the evolution of a system developing along the baroclinic zone to our south. The ECM keeps the disturbance weak and our area dry while the GFS develops a stronger low and in fact shows a very wet day for southern New England. At this point I have kept the forecast dry for Keene, NH with the expectation of any rain being kept to our south.

Weather on Sunday could be starkly different from Saturday. Strong ridging to our southwest will be expanding eastward. This will push the tight temperature gradient through New England. The exact timing of this change will dictate high temperatures. The day will likely be dry, but temperatures could top out more than 10 degrees warmer than Saturday (in the 80's, maybe 90).

The lifespan of the heat is in question however as disturbances moving through could suppress the core of the heat southward by midweek. Expect periodic thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday in this summertime pattern.