Today will mark the end of our streak of sunny weather. Mid level cloudiness ahead of a backdoor cold front has overspread the region. A weak wave of low pressure in association with mid level vorticity is currently developing along the front, and will pass over southern New England late this afternoon. This will spread some light showers over the region focused after 4pm in Keene. 850mb temperatures are around 3C but with cloudiness high will be supressed to around 60.

Shower threat ends after midnight tonight, with rapidly clearing skies Sunday morning from north to south as high pressure builds to our northwest. Winds shift to the north transporting a cooler and drier airmass into New England. Despite sunny skies, high will struggle into the mid 50's.

By Sunday evening, the next storm system of interest will be moving into the Ohio Valley. Model consensus has shifted toward the ECM's solution, with consolidated energy pulling surface low pressure up into the Great Lakes. High pressure ridge crests over the region Sunday night, and holds tight through Monday morning. This will allow skies to remain mostly clear. Clouds will be on the increase through the day Monday, but precipitation should hold off. Temperatures will be on the cool side with 850mb temps around -4C, and partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Showers will be creeping into southwest New England by the late afternoon and into the Monadnock region after 6pm.

Warm front will be rotating north around the Great Lakes low with a secondary low developing along the front near or just west of the region. Best lift will likely stay south of I90, but still could see some decent rainfall Monday night into Tuesday morning. There is a chance of some thunder mainly south of I90. There could be a break in the rain late in the morning through early afternoon before another round moves in for the afternoon and evening in association with the deepening secondary low. Total rainfall through Tuesday evening should be on the order of .5" to .75".

Tuesday night through Wednesday, surface low pressure will pull into Quebec, however the closed 500mb low will still be sitting over the Great Lakes, with its broad cyclonic flow across New England. This along with residual moisture will keep clouds and scattered showers locked in over the area. As the trough remains to our west, cold air advection will be limited, but with cloudiness, highs will still struggle to reach 50.

The trough axis will pass over the region on Thursday, with the coldest 850mb temperatures moving in. However, the column will be drying out, and with high pressure building in from the south, skies will be in clearing mode, helping highs into the mid 50's.

Mid level inflection passes through Thursday night, with anticyclonic flow taking over on Friday. High pressure will continue to strengthen in the Mid Atlantic region. A much warmer airmass is expected to advect eastward during the day, and highs will recover into the 60's.

There is a good model consensus for strong ridging over the east for next weekend, supporting the highest temperatures so far this year. Right now, I have 68 up for both days, however based on current projections, highs could easily soar into the 70's.